Trump says Iran deal will reopen Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump said the United States and Iran could sign a peace agreement on Sunday that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's foreign ministry said no fixed signing date had been agreed and that a deal may only be finalised in the coming days. Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, said mediators were closer than before to a settlement. The gap between those public positions matters: the proposed memorandum is being presented by Washington as a path to end the Iran war, restore shipping through the Gulf chokepoint and start a new phase of nuclear negotiations, while Tehran is still stressing sequencing and guarantees. The EIA's June forecast assumes Hormuz remains effectively closed in the near term, with normal traffic only returning in early 2027. For Europe, the immediate test is whether diplomacy can lower energy, shipping and inflation pressure before the G7 summit in Évian.
Trust & Evidence📚 6 sources· ✓ Editor reviewed· 🧠 AI-checked· Trust status: not yet independently verifiedView evidence & verification Hide
Verification record
- 📚 6 verified sources — Euronews, Trump annonce qu'un accord de paix avec l'Iran pourrait être signé dimanche · The Guardian, Trump says Iran peace deal could be signed by Sunday · Axios, U.S., Iran expected to electronically sign agreement to end war Sunday · The Times, Peace deal with Iran will be finalised on Sunday, declares Trump …
- 🧠 High confidence — AI-checked, editor-approved
- 🇧🇪 Belgian impact: Medium
- 📜 Provenance recorded & timestamped
Evidence is generated from the OIS evidence chain and reviewed before appearing on Belgium Pulse.
Powered by OIS / Evidentia
Trump's America: From the First Term to Now
A living dossier on Donald Trump's political project, from the 2016 victory through the post-2020 contested period to his return to the White House in January 2025 — and the political, legal, economic and institutional consequences still unfolding.
About this story
Donald Trump (US president, serving a second term from 2025) is pushing the proposed agreement before the G7 summit. Iran (Islamic Republic in West Asia, under a post-Khamenei leadership transition after the 2026 war) is the counterpart in the talks. The Strait of Hormuz (narrow waterway between Iran, Oman and the UAE) is a key oil, LNG and fertiliser route. Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistan's prime minister, in office again since 2024) has acted as a mediator. Abbas Araghchi (Iranian foreign minister) and Esmaeil Baghaei (Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson) are central Iranian diplomatic voices. Évian-les-Bains (French Alpine spa town on Lake Geneva) hosts the 15-17 June 2026 G7 summit. The G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and the EU) is the forum where enforcement and economic spillovers are expected to be discussed.
How to read this story
The history
The current diplomacy follows repeated failed attempts to manage Iran's nuclear programme and regional posture. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action limited Iranian enrichment, but Trump withdrew the United States from it in 2018. A short Iran-Israel ceasefire took effect on 24 June 2025 after the Twelve-Day War. In 2026, the conflict widened after US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, Iran's restrictions around Hormuz and a temporary US-Iran ceasefire announced on 8 April. Islamabad talks on 11-12 April failed, after which the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
The geopolitics
The deal would test whether coercive US pressure can be converted into a durable settlement without a full regional bargain. Iran wants guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks; Washington wants nuclear limits and restored shipping; Israel and Lebanon-related fronts remain sensitive. China, India and other Asian buyers also have a major stake because Gulf energy flows are central to their supply security.
Why now
The trigger is Trump's 13 June announcement that an agreement could be signed on Sunday, just before the 15-17 June G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains. Iran's refusal to confirm that timing makes the next hours diplomatically and economically sensitive.
What to watch
Watch whether a text is signed on Sunday, whether Tehran and Washington publish matching descriptions of the nuclear and sanctions terms, and whether Hormuz traffic data begins to show a sustained reopening. The G7 summit from 15 to 17 June is the next political checkpoint.
Local impact
The most local Belgian effect is likely to be felt in fuel-sensitive sectors: Antwerp-Bruges port logistics, road hauliers, airlines operating from Brussels Airport and farmers buying fertiliser. None of those sectors controls the diplomacy, but their costs can move quickly when oil, freight insurance and refined-product markets react to Hormuz news.
International angle
This is a US-Iran negotiation with European consequences. The EU is part of the G7 summit in Évian and will be pulled into any discussion on sanctions sequencing, maritime security, nuclear verification and inflation spillovers. France's role as host also makes the summit a natural forum for allied scrutiny of any Trump-brokered terms.
What this means for you
Belgian readers should not assume pump, flight or freight costs will fall immediately. The EIA forecast points to a gradual traffic recovery even if diplomacy improves. Businesses with fuel, shipping or fertiliser exposure may want to track contract clauses, delivery timing and hedging assumptions around the G7 and any verified reopening of Hormuz.
What happens next
The immediate question is whether the memorandum is actually signed on Sunday and whether Iran, the United States and mediators describe the same terms afterward. The G7 summit in Évian from 15 to 17 June is expected to test whether allies support enforcement, demining, sanctions sequencing and maritime guarantees. If signature slips, markets could reprice the risk quickly.
Potential consequences
If the deal holds and shipping resumes gradually, European energy prices could ease, but the EIA forecast suggests a slow return to normal flows rather than an instant reset. If the deal fails or parties dispute its terms, Belgium and the wider EU could face renewed volatility in fuel, aviation, freight and fertiliser costs. A partial deal could also leave Israel, Lebanon and Gulf maritime security as unresolved flashpoints.
Opposing perspectives
- Trump administration
The Trump administration frames the memorandum as proof that military pressure and sanctions can force a settlement: Trump said Iran would no longer seek nuclear weapons and that Hormuz would reopen immediately after signature, while US officials present follow-up technical talks as the route to verification.
- Iranian government
The Iranian government is stressing sequencing and sovereignty: Iran's foreign ministry said no fixed Sunday signing had been agreed, and Iranian officials have insisted that any settlement must address sanctions relief, security guarantees and the status of US and Israeli operations, not only nuclear limits.
- Energy-market analysts and trade institutions
Energy-market analysts and trade institutions treat the political announcement as only the first step. The EIA forecast assumes Hormuz traffic remains constrained in the near term, while UN Trade and Development's assessment says maritime chokepoint disruption can transmit energy, transport and food-cost shocks across supply chains.
Timeline
- 2015-07-14·Iran and world powers concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear programme.
- 2018-05-08·Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
- 2025-06-24·A ceasefire took effect after the Twelve-Day War between Iran and Israel.
- 2026-02-28·US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a wider conflict and disruption around Hormuz.
- 2026-04-08·A temporary US-Iran ceasefire was announced after Pakistani mediation.
- 2026-04-11·Islamabad talks between the United States and Iran failed to produce a final agreement.
- 2026-06-13·Trump said a peace agreement could be signed on Sunday and reopen Hormuz.
- 2026-06-15·The G7 summit is scheduled to open in Évian-les-Bains.
Glossary
- Strait of Hormuz
- A narrow maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that is central to oil, LNG and fertiliser shipping.
- G7
- A forum of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union.
- Memorandum of understanding
- A political or diplomatic text recording agreed intentions; it may be less legally binding than a treaty unless parties give it binding force.
- Brent crude
- A global benchmark price for crude oil, widely used to price seaborne oil supplies.
- LNG
- Liquefied natural gas, gas cooled into liquid form for shipment by tanker.
Related to this story
Live connections from the Belgium Impulse ecosystem — not recommendations.
This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.