Trump's America: From the First Term to Now

• Donald Trump won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton, lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, and returned to the presidency in January 2025 after defeating Kamala Harris.
• His political project blends economic nationalism (tariffs, reshoring), restrictive immigration policy, hostility to multilateral institutions, and an explicit drive to remake the federal bureaucracy.
• The second term has moved faster than the first: hundreds of executive orders, large reductions in federal staffing, and a confrontational posture toward European allies on trade and on Ukraine.
• The Supreme Court's 2024 ruling on presidential immunity expanded the legal protection for official acts, shaping which of his prior legal cases can still proceed.
• The Republican Party has been substantially reshaped around Trump's coalition; intra-party dissent is rare and electorally costly.
• For Europe, the most immediate concrete impacts are tariff policy, the future of NATO commitments, and the changing US position on Ukraine peace negotiations.
• The medium-term question is how much of the second-term agenda survives in federal courts and how durably US institutions are altered.

Trump is in the second year of his second presidential term, having taken office in January 2025 after defeating Kamala Harris in November 2024. The administration's first 16 months have centred on executive-order activism (immigration enforcement, federal workforce reductions, tariff policy), a confrontational stance toward NATO and Ukraine policy, and renewed legal exposure in cases that were paused during the campaign. What changed recently: sharp tariffs imposed and partially withdrawn on EU goods; ongoing renegotiation of US support for Ukraine; multiple high-profile cabinet departures. What is still unknown: the durability of executive orders being challenged in federal courts; whether congressional Republicans will continue to back the most contested measures; the trajectory of the Justice Department's reorganisation.

Confidence: high on confirmed actions; medium on the longer-term institutional impact.

Trade. Recent US tariffs and threatened tariffs on EU steel, autos, and agricultural goods directly affect Belgian exporters — the Port of Antwerp is a key transit hub for EU–US trade; tariff turbulence shows up there first.

Security. The shift in US support for Ukraine and the open questioning of NATO Article 5 commitments has accelerated European defence-spending decisions, including in Belgium where the government has committed to faster increases.

Energy. US LNG supply remains material for EU energy security after the cut-off of Russian gas; changes in US export policy directly hit European prices.

Migration. Trump-administration removals of US-resident foreign nationals have begun including European nationals (limited numbers but growing); Belgian consular services in the US have noted increased queries.

Tech and data. The future of the EU–US Data Privacy Framework — already on shaky ground after Schrems II — is more uncertain under an administration openly hostile to EU regulatory authority.

What is agreed: Trump won the 2016 and 2024 elections; lost the 2020 election; was twice impeached; was the subject of multiple criminal indictments; signed major tax legislation in 2017; renegotiated NAFTA into USMCA.

What is disputed: the broader characterisation of the political project (populist realignment vs. democratic backsliding vs. anti-establishment correction); the long-term effect on US institutions; the effectiveness of tariff policy on US manufacturing.

What is unknown: how much of the second-term executive-order agenda survives federal court review; whether the 2026 midterms reshape the congressional balance; the eventual outcome of the still-active legal cases.

Common misinformation to watch for: claims about the 2020 election that contradict court findings and audit results; manipulated quotes circulating during election cycles; AI-generated images and audio. We cite primary documents wherever available.

• US tariff schedule and EU exposure (Eurostat + USTR)
• Federal workforce headcount trends (OPM)
• Ukraine military aid flows by year (DoD + Kiel Institute tracker)
• 2024 election results map (AP)
• Federal court rulings on executive orders (running tracker — to be embedded)