Russian forces shift to air raids as ground gains slow in Ukraine

Russia's full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022 after eight years of conflict following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas. Earlier Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv in September 2022 and Kherson in November 2022 showed that Russian lines could be forced back, but Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive struggled against dense minefields and prepared defences. NATO's 2025 Hague declaration later framed Russia as a long-term Euro-Atlantic threat and tied Ukraine support to allied defence investment. The current pattern resembles a recurring wartime dynamic: limited ground movement accompanied by intensified long-range strikes on cities, energy sites and logistics.

The broader contest is about whether Russia can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers through attrition. Slower Russian ground gains weaken Moscow's claim to inevitable victory, but sustained bombardment shows it can still impose costs. For NATO and the EU, the central question is whether industrial capacity, sanctions enforcement and political unity can keep pace with a long war.

The story is timely because recent June battlefield assessments show weaker Russian territorial momentum at the same time as missile and drone attacks remain frequent. That contrast changes the interpretation of the war: the visible bombardment does not necessarily mean Moscow is advancing successfully on the ground.