Russian forces shift to air raids as ground gains slow in Ukraine
Russian forces are maintaining heavy missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, but recent battlefield assessments point to weaker momentum on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War assessed in early June that Ukrainian forces had largely halted Russia's spring-summer offensive so far, while Black Bird Group data cited in battlefield reporting put Russian territorial gains in May at only 14 square kilometres. Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 230 square miles since the start of 2026, a claim that should be read as a military-side assessment rather than neutral accounting. The shift matters because Moscow can still punish Ukraine from the air even if ground advances slow. For Europe, it keeps the pressure on air defence deliveries, sanctions enforcement and NATO spending decisions rather than producing a clean turning point in the war.
Trust & Evidence📚 6 sources· ✓ Editor reviewed· 🧠 AI-checked· Trust status: not yet independently verifiedView evidence & verification Hide
Verification record
- 📚 6 verified sources — France 24, Ukraine : derrière les bombardements réguliers, un essoufflement de l'offensive russe · The Guardian, Ukraine war briefing: Russia losing on the ground so pivots to air war, say analysts · The Guardian, Ukraine war briefing: Trump G7 and Zelenskyy update · NATO, The Hague Summit Declaration …
- 🧠 High confidence — AI-checked, editor-approved
- 🇧🇪 Belgian impact: Low
- 📜 Provenance recorded & timestamped
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Ukraine: From Soviet Independence to a War of Attrition
Russia's war on Ukraine, situated in three decades of post-Soviet history — independence (1991), Crimea (2014), Donbas, the February 2022 full-scale invasion, the current war of attrition, and the live debate over Western support and peace terms.
About this story
Oleksandr Syrskyi (Ukraine's commander-in-chief since February 2024) is the senior officer publicly presenting Kyiv's battlefield claims. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine's president since 2019) is pressing allies for air defence and long-range support. Vladimir Putin (Russia's president) remains the central decision-maker behind Moscow's war aims. The Institute for the Study of War (Washington-based conflict research institute) publishes daily open-source assessments of the front. Black Bird Group (Finnish open-source military analysis collective) tracks territorial changes in Ukraine. DeepState (Ukrainian open-source mapping project) is widely used to follow frontline control, though it is not an official arbiter. Donbas (eastern Ukrainian industrial region including Donetsk and Luhansk) remains Russia's core stated territorial objective. NATO (the Brussels-based transatlantic defence alliance) links Ukraine support to European deterrence. The European Commission (EU executive in Brussels) is preparing further sanctions against Russia.
How to read this story
The history
Russia's full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022 after eight years of conflict following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas. Earlier Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv in September 2022 and Kherson in November 2022 showed that Russian lines could be forced back, but Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive struggled against dense minefields and prepared defences. NATO's 2025 Hague declaration later framed Russia as a long-term Euro-Atlantic threat and tied Ukraine support to allied defence investment. The current pattern resembles a recurring wartime dynamic: limited ground movement accompanied by intensified long-range strikes on cities, energy sites and logistics.
The geopolitics
The broader contest is about whether Russia can outlast Ukraine and its Western backers through attrition. Slower Russian ground gains weaken Moscow's claim to inevitable victory, but sustained bombardment shows it can still impose costs. For NATO and the EU, the central question is whether industrial capacity, sanctions enforcement and political unity can keep pace with a long war.
Why now
The story is timely because recent June battlefield assessments show weaker Russian territorial momentum at the same time as missile and drone attacks remain frequent. That contrast changes the interpretation of the war: the visible bombardment does not necessarily mean Moscow is advancing successfully on the ground.
What to watch
Watch for updated open-source territorial data for June, Russian assault rates in Donbas, Ukraine's ability to sustain counterattacks, EU agreement on the proposed 21st sanctions package, and allied announcements on air-defence systems before the next NATO summit cycle.
Local impact
The most local Belgian effect is in Brussels, where EU sanctions work and NATO policy coordination are concentrated. Officials, diplomats, defence contractors, compliance lawyers and Ukrainian community organisations in the capital face the practical follow-through: enforcing restrictions, tracking military support and responding to humanitarian pressure from a war that remains active rather than frozen.
International angle
The story is fundamentally European security news. Russia's ability to continue air attacks while struggling for ground gains affects EU sanctions, NATO planning, G7 diplomacy and Ukraine's path toward deeper Western integration. It also shapes debates among European governments over whether to prioritise air defence, long-range strike capacity, ammunition production or diplomatic pressure.
What this means for you
For Belgian readers, nothing changes overnight in daily life, but the policy direction remains clear: expect continued Ukraine-related budget debates, sanctions-compliance obligations for firms trading internationally, and pressure on European defence production. Ukrainian residents in Belgium may also see renewed calls for humanitarian and reconstruction support as air attacks continue.
What happens next
The next signals are whether Russia can regain ground momentum before the summer fighting season peaks, whether Ukraine can sustain counterattacks without overextending, and whether allies accelerate air-defence deliveries. The European Commission's proposed sanctions still need unanimous approval by EU member states. NATO's next summit cycle will test how allies translate Ukraine support and higher defence spending into actual capabilities.
Potential consequences
If Russia's ground gains remain minimal, Ukraine may gain room to strengthen defensive lines, press limited counterattacks and argue for more favourable negotiating conditions. If Moscow compensates through heavier air attacks, civilian harm and infrastructure damage could increase even while maps change little. For Belgium and the EU, the likely consequence is continued political pressure for sanctions enforcement, air-defence production and defence-budget choices rather than a quick peace dividend.
Opposing perspectives
- Ukrainian military command
Oleksandr Syrskyi's framing is that Ukraine has regained initiative in selected sectors and that Russian attacks are failing to convert manpower and firepower into meaningful ground gains. This view treats the uptick in air attacks as coercion and compensation, while accepting that Kyiv still needs sustained Western air defence and ammunition.
- Institute for the Study of War / open-source analysts
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's spring-summer offensive has been largely halted so far, but this is not the same as Russian defeat. The strongest version of this view is cautious: tactical slowing can create diplomatic and logistical opportunities for Ukraine, yet Moscow retains capacity for air strikes and renewed assaults.
- Russian foreign ministry and Kremlin-aligned position
Russia's foreign ministry has argued that European states are prolonging the war by backing Kyiv and pushing sanctions. In this frame, continued missile, drone and ground operations are presented as pressure to force Ukraine and its allies toward Moscow's terms, not as evidence that the offensive is failing.
- European Commission / sanctions advocates
The European Commission argues that tightening sanctions is necessary because battlefield pressure and economic pressure reinforce each other. Its logic is that limiting finance, oil revenue, shadow-fleet activity and military-linked technology makes Russia's war effort more costly, even if sanctions do not produce an immediate military stop.
Timeline
- 2014-02·Russia annexed Crimea and conflict began in eastern Ukraine after the Maidan revolution.
- 2022-02-24·Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- 2022-09·Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive rapidly pushed Russian forces back in northeastern Ukraine.
- 2023-06·Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive that struggled against prepared Russian defences.
- 2025-06-25·NATO's Hague declaration linked Ukraine support to allied defence investment commitments.
- 2026-06·Open-source assessments and Ukrainian military claims indicated slowing Russian ground gains alongside continued air attacks.
Glossary
- NATO defence spending commitment
- A 2025 allied pledge to invest 5% of GDP annually by 2035 across core defence and related security spending, with Ukraine support counted in part.
- EU sanctions package
- A bundle of restrictive measures proposed by the European Commission and adopted by EU member states, often targeting finance, trade, travel and war-related entities.
- Open-source battlefield assessment
- Military analysis based on publicly available evidence such as geolocated footage, satellite imagery, official statements and mapped frontline changes.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.