Ukraine: From Soviet Independence to a War of Attrition

• Ukraine became independent in August 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union; gave up Soviet-era nuclear weapons in 1994 in exchange for security assurances (Budapest Memorandum).
• The 2014 Maidan revolution removed the pro-Russian president; Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014; war in the Donbas began the same year.
• Russia launched a full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022; Ukraine repelled the initial drive on Kyiv and has fought a long defensive war since.
• The war is the largest in Europe since 1945. Estimated military casualties are in the hundreds of thousands; civilian casualties + millions displaced. (Precise figures contested.)
• Western military and financial support has been led by the US, the UK, Germany, and EU institutions; Ukraine''s own arms industry is now a significant factor.
• The post-January 2025 US position has shifted toward pressure for negotiation; European allies have moved to fill the resulting gap.
• For Belgium and the EU, the war drives defence spending, energy policy, migration policy, and a substantial sanctions regime against Russia.

The war is in its fourth full year. The front line has been broadly static through 2025 with localised Russian gains in the east and Ukrainian deep strikes against Russian infrastructure and energy. Ukrainian airpower (F-16s + drones) is a more significant factor than in earlier years. The change in US administration in January 2025 has shifted the political backdrop for Western support; European allies, including Belgium, have collectively committed to faster increases in defence spending and to continued direct support for Ukraine.

What changed recently: intensified Russian missile + drone campaigns on the Ukrainian power grid; reported negotiations on a partial ceasefire framework; the UK–France–led "coalition of the willing" discussions on post-war security guarantees.

What is still unknown: the exact level of continued US support; the durability of any ceasefire framework; the post-war territorial settlement.

Confidence: high on broad strokes of military and political situation; medium on real-time front-line movement (independently verified mapping lags by 24–72 hours).

Defence. Belgium committed in 2024 to faster defence-spending increases; F-16 deliveries to Ukraine (including from Belgium) are a visible part of the support package; Belgian defence industry (FN Herval, John Cockerill) has expanded production.

Refugees. Around 100 000 Ukrainians registered for temporary protection in Belgium; integration into schools and the labour market is a multi-year story.

Energy. Belgium replaced essentially all Russian gas in its mix after 2022; LNG (from Zeebrugge) is a significant supply route for Belgium and onward into Germany. Nuclear extension decisions are partly framed by the war.

Sanctions. Brussels designs and enforces the EU sanctions packages; Belgian financial institutions have been involved in the immobilised Russian sovereign asset debate (Euroclear).

Frozen assets. A meaningful share of the immobilised Russian sovereign assets sits with Euroclear in Brussels; their potential use to fund Ukraine reconstruction is a sensitive Belgian-specific debate.

What is agreed: Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022; annexed Crimea in 2014; the war is the largest in Europe since 1945; the EU has imposed extensive sanctions packages.

What is disputed: the right balance of military aid vs. negotiation; the precise territorial outcome that is realistic; the long-term security architecture for Europe; the casualty figures (independent verification is difficult).

What is unknown: when and how the war ends; the durability of any ceasefire; the role of NATO membership for Ukraine in any settlement; the scale of post-war reconstruction needs.

Common misinformation to watch for: front-line maps from partisan sources; out-of-context battlefield videos repurposed across fronts and dates; inflated or deflated casualty claims; manipulated diplomatic statements. We rely on ISW / Bellingcat / Reuters / AP / national defence ministries.

• ISW daily situation map (Institute for the Study of War)
• Ukraine Support Tracker (Kiel Institute)
• EU sanctions packages tracker (European Council)
• UNHCR Ukraine refugee data (operational portal)
• Euroclear frozen Russian assets (Belgian government + ECB public materials)