NOAA says El Niño has returned as forecasters warn of stronger heat and rainfall extremes
Updated: 26 June 2026, Brussels. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 11 June that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The IRI climate centre said on 22 June that Pacific readings show El Niño intensifying. The French-language warning frame, “canicules et pluies torrentielles,” reflects the main risk: higher global heat and sharper regional rainfall shifts, not a single automatic forecast for Belgium.
Trust & Evidence📚 5 sources· ✓ Editor reviewed· 🧠 AI-checked· Trust status: not yet independently verifiedView evidence & verification Hide
Verification record
- 📚 5 verified sources — 7sur7 · NOAA Climate Prediction Center · International Research Institute for Climate and Society · The Guardian, reporting WMO warning …
- 🧠 High confidence — AI-checked, editor-approved
- 🇧🇪 Belgian impact: Low
- 📜 Provenance recorded & timestamped
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About this story
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a Pacific ocean-atmosphere cycle tracked by NOAA and IRI through sea-surface temperatures, winds and pressure patterns. NOAA said the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +0.7 C in early June, while IRI reported a later weekly value of +1.7 C centred on 17 June, showing rapid strengthening in the central Pacific.
How to read this story
The history
IRI notes that El Niño and La Niña events often develop from April to June, peak between October and February, usually last 9 to 12 months and recur every two to seven years. NOAA says the historical record used for ranking major events goes back to 1950.
Regional impact
For Belgium, the impact is indirect. The Royal Meteorological Institute remains the authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings; El Niño is a background climate signal rather than a local weather forecast for Brussels, Wallonia or Flanders.
Local impact
In Belgium, follow KMI/IRM warnings for heat, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. El Niño does not replace short-range Belgian forecasts.
International angle
The main story is global: a Pacific climate pattern is strengthening and is expected to influence heat and rainfall risks into 2027.
What this means for you
Check official heat and storm warnings before travel or outdoor work, protect vulnerable people during hot spells, keep drainage clear ahead of intense rain, and avoid treating global El Niño headlines as exact Belgian forecasts.
Opposing perspectives
- NOAA forecasters
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center presents the event as established and strengthening, with a specific 63% probability that November-January reaches very strong El Niño levels in the historical record that starts in 1950.
- WMO risk communicators
The World Meteorological Organization’s public message, reported by The Guardian, stresses preparedness and uncertainty around strength, warning against treating every strong El Niño as a uniform global disaster forecast.
Related to this story
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.