NOAA says El Niño has returned as forecasters warn of stronger heat and rainfall extremes
Updated: 26 June 2026, Brussels. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 11 June that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
In 30 seconds
- NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on 11 June 2026 and said conditions are expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27.
- NOAA forecast a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January.
- IRI said on 22 June that El Niño probabilities stand at 100% from June-August through September-November.
- IRI said 13 of 24 models show a very strong El Niño peak during September-November.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a ocean-atmosphere cycle tracked by and through sea-surface temperatures, winds and pressure patterns. NOAA said the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +0.7 C in early June, while IRI reported a later weekly value of +1.7 C centred on 17 June, showing rapid strengthening in the central Pacific.
Background
IRI notes that El Niño and La Niña events often develop from April to June, peak between October and February, usually last 9 to 12 months and recur every two to seven years. NOAA says the historical record used for ranking major events goes back to 1950.
What to do
Check official heat and storm warnings before travel or outdoor work, protect vulnerable people during hot spells, keep drainage clear ahead of intense rain, and avoid treating global El Niño headlines as exact Belgian forecasts.
Impact
Regional — For Belgium, the impact is indirect. The Royal Meteorological Institute remains the authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings; El Niño is a background climate signal rather than a local weather forecast for Brussels, Wallonia or Flanders.
EvidenceWell established · 1 primary source + 2 official documents + 1 independent reporting source · Academic sources: 1Explore evidence →Hide evidence ↑
- Publication date unavailable
- Retrieved by ODIN:
- 26 Jun 2026
- Published:
- 11 Jun 2026, 02:00
- Retrieved by ODIN:
- 26 Jun 2026
- Published:
- 22 Jun 2026, 02:00
- Retrieved by ODIN:
- 26 Jun 2026
- Published:
- 2 Jun 2026, 02:00
- Retrieved by ODIN:
- 26 Jun 2026
- Publication date unavailable
- Retrieved by ODIN:
- 26 Jun 2026
Voices & reactions
What the main actors are doing
Reported positions, summarised — not direct quotationsNOAA forecasters
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center presents the event as established and strengthening, with a specific 63% probability that November-January reaches very strong El Niño levels in the historical record that starts in 1950.
WMO risk communicators
The World Meteorological Organization’s public message, reported by The Guardian, stresses preparedness and uncertainty around strength, warning against treating every strong El Niño as a uniform global disaster forecast.
The story, connected
Explore the people, places and ideas in this story
Go beyond the headline. Open a card for sourced context, maps, official links and the other subjects connected to this report.
Continue reading
This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.