InternationalHealth
Updated 26 June 2026

NOAA says El Niño has returned as forecasters warn of stronger heat and rainfall extremes

Updated: 26 June 2026, Brussels. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said on 11 June that El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.

Belgium Impulse Editorial·26 June 2026·2 min read·
Well established· 1 primary source + 2 official documents + 1 independent reporting source · Academic sources: 1

In 30 seconds

  • NOAA issued an El Niño Advisory on 11 June 2026 and said conditions are expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27.
  • NOAA forecast a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January.
  • IRI said on 22 June that El Niño probabilities stand at 100% from June-August through September-November.
  • IRI said 13 of 24 models show a very strong El Niño peak during September-November.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a

Place

Pacific

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

Why it matters

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

About

The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It stretches from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean, or, depending on the definition, to Antarctica in the south, and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.

ocean-atmosphere cycle tracked by
Organisation

NOAA

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

Why it matters

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

About

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a United States scientific and regulatory agency tasked with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, conducting deep-sea exploration, and managing fishing and protection of marine mammals and endangered species in the US exclusive economic zone. The agency is part of the United States Department of Commerce and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.

and
Organisation

IRI

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

Why it matters

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

About

Eritrea, officially the State of Eritrea, is a country in the Horn of Africa region of East Africa. Its capital and largest city is Asmara. The country is bordered by Ethiopia to the south, Sudan to the west, and Djibouti to the southeast. The northeastern and eastern parts of Eritrea have an extensive coastline along the Red Sea.

through sea-surface temperatures, winds and pressure patterns. NOAA said the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index reached +0.7 C in early June, while IRI reported a later weekly value of +1.7 C centred on 17 June, showing rapid strengthening in the central Pacific.

Background

IRI notes that El Niño and La Niña events often develop from April to June, peak between October and February, usually last 9 to 12 months and recur every two to seven years. NOAA says the historical record used for ranking major events goes back to 1950.

Context & what happens next

What to do

Check official heat and storm warnings before travel or outdoor work, protect vulnerable people during hot spells, keep drainage clear ahead of intense rain, and avoid treating global El Niño headlines as exact Belgian forecasts.

Impact

Regional — For Belgium, the impact is indirect. The Royal Meteorological Institute remains the authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings; El Niño is a background climate signal rather than a local weather forecast for Brussels, Wallonia or Flanders.

Evidence
Well established · 1 primary source + 2 official documents + 1 independent reporting source · Academic sources: 1
Explore evidence
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Published:
11 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Published:
22 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
The Guardian, reporting WMO warning
Published:
2 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
official
Publication date unavailable
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original

Voices & reactions

What the main actors are doing

Reported positions, summarised — not direct quotations

NOAA forecasters

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center presents the event as established and strengthening, with a specific 63% probability that November-January reaches very strong El Niño levels in the historical record that starts in 1950.

WMO risk communicators

The World Meteorological Organization’s public message, reported by The Guardian, stresses preparedness and uncertainty around strength, warning against treating every strong El Niño as a uniform global disaster forecast.

The story, connected

Explore the people, places and ideas in this story

Go beyond the headline. Open a card for sourced context, maps, official links and the other subjects connected to this report.

Organisations

NOAA

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

In this story

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

Background

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a United States scientific and regulatory agency tasked with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, conducting deep-sea exploration, and managing fishing and protection of marine mammals and endangered species in the US exclusive economic zone. The agency is part of the United States Department of Commerce and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.

Organisations

Climate Prediction Center

NOAA centre that said El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific

In this story

NOAA centre that said El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific

Background

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. CPC is headquartered in College Park, Maryland.

Places

Northern Hemisphere

region referenced for the winter period when El Niño is expected to strengthen

In this story

region referenced for the winter period when El Niño is expected to strengthen

Background

The Northern Hemisphere is the half of Earth that is north of the equator. For other planets in the Solar System, north is defined as being in the same celestial hemisphere relative to the invariable plane the Solar System as Earth's North Pole.

Organisations

IRI

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

In this story

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

Background

Eritrea, officially the State of Eritrea, is a country in the Horn of Africa region of East Africa. Its capital and largest city is Asmara. The country is bordered by Ethiopia to the south, Sudan to the west, and Djibouti to the southeast. The northeastern and eastern parts of Eritrea have an extensive coastline along the Red Sea.

Places

Pacific

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

In this story

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

Background

The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It stretches from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean, or, depending on the definition, to Antarctica in the south, and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.

Organisations

Royal Meteorological Institute

authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings

In this story

authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings

Background

The Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium is a Belgian federal institute engaged in scientific research in the field of meteorology. The RMI depends on the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO). The institute is a member of the World Meteorological Organization, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, of EUMETSAT, and of the EIG Eumetnet.

Places

Brussels

Belgian location mentioned in the update dateline and local forecast context

In this story

Belgian location mentioned in the update dateline and local forecast context

Background

The City of Brussels is the largest municipality and historical centre of the Brussels-Capital Region, as well as the capital of the French Community of Belgium, the Flemish Region, and Belgium. The City of Brussels is also the administrative centre of the European Union, as it hosts a number of principal EU institutions in its European Quarter.

Continue reading

Powered by ODIN™An Ordinis creation · © 2026 Ordinis

This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.

methodology.