Vlaams Belang overtakes N-VA in new Flemish poll
An Ipsos voting-intention poll conducted from 1 to 9 June 2026 puts Vlaams Belang first in Flanders on 26.6%, ahead of N-VA on 22.3%, while the same poll gives Vooruit 12.9%, CD&V 12.6%, PVDA 10.1%, Groen 7.0% and Anders 6.9%. The result is politically awkward for Prime Minister Bart De Wever's N-VA because it comes after a March 2026 Ipsos poll showed the two Flemish nationalist parties almost tied, with N-VA fractionally ahead. A single poll is not an election forecast, but the direction matters: Flemish right-wing competition remains unresolved even after N-VA entered the federal premiership in February 2025. The broader federal picture is not a simple Vlaams Belang breakthrough because the same polling series shows different leaders in Wallonia and Brussels. Belgium's governing arithmetic still depends on language-group balances, coalition acceptability and the cordon sanitaire around Vlaams Belang.
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About this story
Vlaams Belang (Flemish nationalist, anti-immigration party founded in 2004 after Vlaams Blok was condemned under anti-racism law) is the main far-right force in Flanders. N-VA, or Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (Flemish nationalist conservative party founded in 2001 from the Volksunie split), leads the federal government. Bart De Wever (N-VA politician, born 1970, Belgian prime minister since 3 February 2025) is the first Flemish nationalist to head Belgium's federal cabinet. Ipsos (international polling company) conducted the survey behind the latest figures. Vooruit (Flemish social-democratic party), CD&V (Flemish Christian democrats), PVDA/PTB (unitary Marxist left party), Groen (Flemish greens) and Anders (the rebranded Open Vld liberal party, renamed in January 2026) are the other Flemish actors in the poll. Le Soir, RTL TVI, Het Laatste Nieuws and VTM are the media partners that publish the Grand Barometer polling series.
How to read this story
The history
The pattern echoes the run-up to the 9 June 2024 elections, when pre-election surveys often suggested Vlaams Belang could overtake N-VA in Flanders, but official federal results left N-VA ahead nationally with 24 Chamber seats and Vlaams Belang with 20. Vlaams Belang nevertheless rose strongly in the Flemish Parliament and became first in the Dutch-speaking electoral college for the 2024 European election. The cordon sanitaire dates from the late 1980s and was reinforced after Vlaams Blok's 2004 racism conviction, limiting Vlaams Belang's path from votes to office.
Why now
The story is timely because the 1-9 June 2026 Ipsos Grand Barometer is the latest major voting-intention snapshot after Bart De Wever's first full year as federal prime minister and after earlier 2026 polling showed N-VA and Vlaams Belang nearly tied.
What to watch
Watch whether later 2026 polls confirm a stable Vlaams Belang lead, whether N-VA changes its federal messaging, and whether French-speaking parties harden their refusal to cooperate with any coalition dependent on Vlaams Belang after the next election.
Regional impact
The regional split is central. In Flanders, Ipsos puts Vlaams Belang first at 26.6% and N-VA second at 22.3%, according to the 1-9 June 2026 Grand Barometer. In Wallonia, the same poll puts PS ahead at 29.0%, with Les Engagés and MR close behind, while in Brussels it puts PTB first at 24.8%. That contrast matters federally because a Flemish nationalist lead does not translate automatically into Belgian governing power; coalitions still require Dutch- and French-speaking partners able to survive their own regional electorates.
Local impact
The most concrete local impact is in Flemish municipalities where N-VA and Vlaams Belang compete for the same right-leaning electorate, especially in Antwerp, East Flanders and West Flanders. Local councillors and party branches will read the poll as a signal about candidate selection, campaign tone and whether federal incumbency helps or hurts N-VA on the ground.
International angle
The European angle is indirect but relevant. Vlaams Belang sits with Europe's hard-right current, while N-VA has tried to combine Flemish nationalism with governing credibility. A stronger Vlaams Belang would align Flanders with a broader European pattern of radical-right resilience, but Belgium's multilingual coalition system still makes the translation from votes to executive power unusually difficult.
What this means for you
Nothing changes immediately for voters, public services or businesses because a poll has no legal effect. The practical takeaway is political: negotiations on budgets, migration, pensions and state reform may become more sensitive if coalition parties believe N-VA is losing ground to Vlaams Belang in Flanders.
What happens next
No election follows automatically from a poll. Parties are likely to watch whether the June Ipsos result is repeated in later Grand Barometer or university-backed surveys, and whether N-VA adjusts its federal messaging. Vlaams Belang will probably use the figures to challenge the legitimacy of exclusion, while coalition parties will test whether government delivery can reverse the trend before 2029.
Potential consequences
If the trend persists, N-VA could face pressure to harden its positions on migration, security, budget policy or state reform to defend its Flemish flank. That could complicate compromises with Vooruit, CD&V, MR and Les Engagés inside the federal coalition. Vlaams Belang may gain narrative leverage, but unless coalition taboos shift, higher poll numbers may still translate more into opposition pressure than direct governing power.
Opposing perspectives
- Vlaams Belang supporters
Vlaams Belang supporters can argue that the Ipsos figures show the party is no longer a protest exception but the leading Flemish electoral force. In that frame, continued exclusion through the cordon sanitaire looks less like democratic hygiene and more like established parties insulating themselves from a large share of Flemish voters.
- N-VA and federal coalition parties
N-VA and its coalition partners can argue that polling does not change the governing mandate created after the 2024 election. Their strongest case is that N-VA converted votes into federal leadership, while Vlaams Belang remains unable to assemble acceptable partners across Belgium's language divide.
- Francophone democratic parties
Francophone parties can frame the poll as a Flemish warning signal rather than a Belgian mandate. Their strongest argument is that Wallonia and Brussels show different party dynamics, and that any future federal formula must remain compatible with French-speaking voters' rejection of cooperation with the far right.
Timeline
- 2004-11-09·Vlaams Blok was condemned under Belgian anti-racism law, leading to the creation of Vlaams Belang.
- 2024-06-09·Belgian federal, regional and European elections took place; N-VA remained ahead of Vlaams Belang federally.
- 2025-02-03·Bart De Wever became Belgian prime minister at the head of the Arizona coalition.
- 2026-06-01/2026-06-09·Ipsos conducted the Grand Barometer poll that put Vlaams Belang ahead of N-VA in Flanders.
- 2026-06-12·The June 2026 Grand Barometer results were published.
Glossary
- Cordon sanitaire
- A Belgian political practice under which other parties refuse to form governing coalitions with Vlaams Belang or its predecessor Vlaams Blok.
- Grand Barometer
- A recurring Belgian voting-intention poll published by media partners and conducted by Ipsos.
- Arizona coalition
- The federal coalition formed in 2025 by N-VA, Vooruit, CD&V, MR and Les Engagés, named after the parties' colours resembling the Arizona flag.
- Chamber of Representatives
- Belgium's 150-seat federal lower house, the main elected chamber for forming federal majorities.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.