Vlaams Belang overtakes N-VA in new Flemish poll
Ipsos puts Vlaams Belang clearly ahead of N-VA in Flanders, sharpening pressure on Bart De Wever's governing party.
In 30 seconds
- Ipsos puts Vlaams Belang at 26.6% in Flanders, ahead of N-VA at 22.3%, in its 1-9 June 2026 poll.
- The same Ipsos poll gives Vooruit 12.9%, CD&V 12.6%, PVDA 10.1%, Groen 7.0% and Anders 6.9% in Flanders.
- Official 2024 federal results recorded N-VA with 24 Chamber seats and Vlaams Belang with 20.
- Bart De Wever's federal government took office on 3 February 2025 after N-VA, Vooruit, CD&V, MR and Les Engagés reached agreement.
Vlaams Belang (Flemish nationalist, anti-immigration party founded in 2004 after Vlaams Blok was condemned under anti-racism law) is the main far-right force in Flanders. N-VA, or Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie (Flemish nationalist conservative party founded in 2001 from the Volksunie split), leads the federal government. Bart De Wever (N-VA politician, born 1970, Belgian prime minister since 3 February 2025) is the first Flemish nationalist to head Belgium's federal cabinet. Ipsos (international polling company) conducted the survey behind the latest figures. Vooruit (Flemish social-democratic party), CD&V (Flemish Christian democrats), PVDA/PTB (unitary Marxist left party), Groen (Flemish greens) and Anders (the rebranded Open Vld liberal party, renamed in January 2026) are the other Flemish actors in the poll. Le Soir, RTL TVI, Het Laatste Nieuws and VTM are the media partners that publish the Grand Barometer polling series.
Background
The pattern echoes the run-up to the 9 June 2024 elections, when pre-election surveys often suggested Vlaams Belang could overtake N-VA in Flanders, but official federal results left N-VA ahead nationally with 24 Chamber seats and Vlaams Belang with 20. Vlaams Belang nevertheless rose strongly in the Flemish Parliament and became first in the Dutch-speaking electoral college for the 2024 European election. The cordon sanitaire dates from the late 1980s and was reinforced after Vlaams Blok's 2004 racism conviction, limiting Vlaams Belang's path from votes to office.
Why now
The story is timely because the 1-9 June 2026 Ipsos Grand Barometer is the latest major voting-intention snapshot after Bart De Wever's first full year as federal prime minister and after earlier 2026 polling showed N-VA and Vlaams Belang nearly tied.
What happens next
Watch whether later 2026 polls confirm a stable Vlaams Belang lead, whether N-VA changes its federal messaging, and whether French-speaking parties harden their refusal to cooperate with any coalition dependent on Vlaams Belang after the next election.
What to do
Nothing changes immediately for voters, public services or businesses because a poll has no legal effect. The practical takeaway is political: negotiations on budgets, migration, pensions and state reform may become more sensitive if coalition parties believe N-VA is losing ground to Vlaams Belang in Flanders.
The Belgian angle
The regional split is central. In Flanders, Ipsos puts Vlaams Belang first at 26.6% and N-VA second at 22.3%, according to the 1-9 June 2026 Grand Barometer. In Wallonia, the same poll puts PS ahead at 29.0%, with Les Engagés and MR close behind, while in Brussels it puts PTB first at 24.8%. That contrast matters federally because a Flemish nationalist lead does not translate automatically into Belgian governing power; coalitions still require Dutch- and French-speaking partners able to survive their own regional electorates.
Across the language divide
The FR-side source frames the Ipsos poll primarily as a broader Belgian barometer, foregrounding Wallonia and Brussels in its headline: MR being caught by Les Engagés in Wallonia and the far left leading in Brussels. Flanders appears as one part of a multi-region political picture rather than the central drama.
The NL-side sources frame the same poll through Flemish party competition, making Vlaams Belang's lead over N-VA the headline event. Their vocabulary stresses N-VA's setback, with HLN calling it N-VA's worst poll since the elections and De Tijd emphasizing Vlaams Belang being larger again.
How we got here
- 2004-11-09
Vlaams Blok was condemned under Belgian anti-racism law, leading to the creation of Vlaams Belang.
- 2024-06-09
Belgian federal, regional and European elections took place; N-VA remained ahead of Vlaams Belang federally.
- 2025-02-03
Bart De Wever became Belgian prime minister at the head of the Arizona coalition.
- 2026-06-01/2026-06-09
Ipsos conducted the Grand Barometer poll that put Vlaams Belang ahead of N-VA in Flanders.
- 2026-06-12
The June 2026 Grand Barometer results were published.
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This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.
This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and passed Belgium Impulse source, provenance and publication-quality checks. methodology.