Pakistan says US and Iran reached draft peace text
Pakistan’s prime minister says Washington and Tehran have agreed wording for a peace text aimed at ending the US-Iran war, but the claim remains short of a signed settlement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is close to finalisation, while a senior US administration official says the deal is not complete and that technical work on Iran’s enriched uranium would continue after signature. The emerging package appears to centre on extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing US sanctions in phases and resolving Iran’s nuclear stockpile. The core uncertainty is sequencing: Tehran wants economic relief and control of Hormuz recognised, while Washington says benefits should follow verifiable concessions. For Europe and Belgium, the immediate stake is energy-price volatility; the wider issue is whether diplomacy can replace a war that has already drawn in shipping, sanctions and regional security guarantees.
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The Iran Conflict: Nuclear, Regional and Diplomatic
The decades-long confrontation between Iran and its adversaries — the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and proxies across the region — covering the nuclear file, sanctions, the JCPOA collapse, the post-October 2023 escalation, and current diplomatic openings.
About this story
Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistan’s prime minister since 2022, currently mediating between Washington and Tehran) is presenting Islamabad as a channel both sides can use. Abbas Araghchi (Iran’s foreign minister and former nuclear negotiator) is Tehran’s public voice on the proposed Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. Donald Trump (US president) is pushing for a settlement after months of military escalation. The Strait of Hormuz (narrow Gulf waterway between Iran and Oman) is a critical route for oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA (2015 Iran nuclear accord coordinated by the EU) is the benchmark against which any new nuclear bargain is judged. The European External Action Service, or EEAS (EU diplomatic service based in Brussels since 2011), carries the EU’s institutional memory from earlier Iran talks. Hezbollah (Iran-backed Lebanese armed movement and political party) matters because Tehran links parts of the deal to Lebanon.
How to read this story
The history
The EEAS says the EU High Representative led talks between Iran and the E3/EU+3 that produced the JCPOA in Vienna on 14 July 2015. The United States left that pact in 2018, after which Iran progressively moved beyond its enrichment limits. In June 2025, the IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with safeguards obligations, a decision followed by Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and later restrictions on IAEA access. CSIS warned as early as 2007 that Gulf incidents can escalate quickly because misperception, asymmetric retaliation and energy dependence interact in the Strait of Hormuz.
The geopolitics
The broader contest is over whether a middle power, Pakistan, can mediate between a US administration seeking enforceable concessions and an Iranian state trying to preserve sovereignty, deterrence and economic relief. Hormuz gives Tehran leverage over global markets, while Washington’s sanctions and naval power give it leverage over Iran’s economy and shipping routes.
Why now
The story is timely because Pakistan’s prime minister publicly claimed on 12 June 2026 that a final agreed text exists, while Iran’s foreign minister said the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was close and a senior US official described the draft as almost complete.
What to watch
Watch for a public signature, identical descriptions of the text from Washington and Tehran, Israeli reaction, any reopening timetable for Hormuz, and the start of the 60-day technical period that a senior US official says would address enriched uranium.
Local impact
The most local Belgian effect is on fuel-sensitive sectors rather than a single commune: road hauliers around Antwerp and Zeebrugge, Brussels Airport carriers, taxi and delivery drivers, and households using cars for commuting. They will not see a diplomatic change instantly, but fuel and freight contracts can respond quickly when oil markets reassess Hormuz risk.
International angle
This is primarily an international security story. The proposed deal links US-Iran hostilities, Iranian nuclear constraints, Gulf shipping and Lebanon. The EU’s role is secondary but real: the EEAS says Brussels coordinated the 2015 JCPOA process, and any durable settlement would intersect with EU sanctions policy, non-proliferation diplomacy and energy-security planning.
What this means for you
Belgian readers should treat the announcement as a market and security signal, not as a completed peace settlement. Fuel prices, airfares and freight surcharges could soften if shipping access is verified, but businesses with energy exposure should watch implementation details because unsigned or disputed terms can reverse market moves quickly.
What happens next
The next step is expected to be confirmation, signature or collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. A senior US administration official says uranium-removal details would be worked out during a 60-day period after signature, so even a signed text would begin a more technical phase. Watch for whether Tehran, Washington and Israel publicly accept the same sequencing on sanctions, Hormuz and nuclear verification.
Potential consequences
If the memorandum is signed and implemented, energy markets could price in lower shipping risk and Europe could get relief from fuel and freight volatility. If the text unravels, the competing claims already circulating could harden positions inside Washington, Tehran and Israel. The largest second-order risk is that a failed diplomatic moment makes renewed strikes, tanker incidents or sanctions escalation more likely, with knock-on effects for inflation and EU security planning.
Opposing perspectives
- Pakistani mediators
Pakistan’s prime minister presents the moment as a near-breakthrough: Islamabad says a final agreed text exists and that mediators are now managing next steps. This frame argues that public uncertainty is partly a negotiation-management problem, not proof that the diplomacy has failed.
- US administration
A senior US administration official frames the draft as close but conditional: Washington says economic benefits should flow only after Iran meets obligations on nuclear material, shipping access and regional armed groups. This view treats sequencing and verification as the real substance of the deal.
- Iranian leadership
Iran’s foreign minister frames the memorandum as near-final but not yet a blank cheque for outside interpretations. Tehran’s strongest version is that it will not let leaked drafts define its sovereignty over Hormuz or the timing of sanctions relief before domestic consultations finish.
- Israeli government
Israel’s government frames any deal through the nuclear and proxy threat: its strongest argument is that a ceasefire text must not leave Iran able to rebuild enrichment capacity or sustain Hezbollah. This view sees a quick signature as risky unless enforcement comes first.
Timeline
- 2015-07-14·The EEAS says the JCPOA was concluded in Vienna after EU-led diplomacy with Iran and the E3/EU+3.
- 2018-05-08·The United States withdrew from the JCPOA and restored sanctions on Iran.
- 2025-06-12·The IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with safeguards obligations, according to contemporaneous reporting on the agency decision.
- 2026-06-12·Pakistan’s prime minister said Washington and Tehran had reached final agreed wording for a peace text.
Glossary
- EEAS
- The European External Action Service is the EU’s diplomatic service, based in Brussels and responsible for supporting the EU’s foreign-policy chief.
- JCPOA
- The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is the 2015 Iran nuclear accord limiting parts of Iran’s programme in exchange for nuclear-related sanctions relief.
- E3/EU+3
- The Iran nuclear-talks format involving France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, the United States and the EU coordinator.
- Strait of Hormuz
- A narrow Gulf passage between Iran and Oman that the US Energy Information Administration treats as a critical oil-transit chokepoint.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.