Why does the NATO defence-spending summit leave premier De Wever with so little room to manoeuvre?
Prime Minister Bart De Wever heads into a high-stakes NATO defence-spending discussion just as his own Arizona coalition is accused of drifting into caretaker-style paralysis.
In 30 seconds
- De Morgen framed the NATO spending push around avoiding 'hockey-stick' curves — flat now, steep later — a shape Washington distrusts.
- Bart De Wever (N-VA) leads the five-party Arizona coalition formed in early 2025 (N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR, Les Engagés).
- NATO's June 2025 Hague summit endorsed a 5 percent-of-GDP ambition (3.5 percent core plus 1.5 percent broader security), above the old 2 percent guideline.
- Defence is a federal competence held by minister Theo Francken (N-VA); the fiscal room to fund it collides with the autumn budget.
Bart De Wever (N-VA) is Belgium's federal prime minister, leading the five-party 'Arizona' coalition (N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR, Les Engagés) formed in early 2025. Theo Francken (N-VA) is defence minister, Vincent Van Peteghem (CD&V) finance minister, and Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) a deputy prime minister with the social affairs and health portfolio. NATO, led by Secretary-General Mark Rutte, endorsed a 5 percent-of-GDP defence-and-security ambition at its June 2025 summit in The Hague, replacing the older 2 percent guideline as the reference point. 'Hockey-sticking' is the practice of promising flat near-term spending followed by a steep later rise — a curve Washington distrusts because it defers real investment.
Background
Belgium spent much of the past two decades as one of NATO's lowest defence spenders relative to GDP, well under the 2 percent guideline agreed at the 2014 Wales summit, drawing repeated criticism from larger allies. Successive governments promised gradual increases; the De Wever government made reaching 2 percent a headline aim. The Hague summit's shift toward a 5 percent ambition in June 2025 substantially raised the bar, turning what had been a hard-won Belgian target into a new baseline.
What to do
How Belgium reconciles its NATO pledge with its budget will influence the balance between military outlays and social spending, shaping fiscal decisions felt by residents in the coming budget cycle.
Impact
Regional — Defence and foreign policy are federal competences, so the NATO commitment itself is not a regional decision. But the fiscal squeeze it feeds into pressures federal social and health budgets that matter across Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels, and constrains room for other spending priorities the regions care about.
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- 8 Aug 2026
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This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.