Vlaams Belang opens clear Flemish polling lead over N-VA
The Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey conducted on 1-9 June 2026 puts Vlaams Belang on 26.6% in Flanders, ahead of N-VA on 22.3%, with Vooruit on 12.9%, CD&V on 12.6%, PVDA on 10.1%, Groen on 7.0% and Anders on 6.9%. The result matters because N-VA leads the federal government under Bart De Wever, while Vlaams Belang remains outside governing coalitions under the cordon sanitaire. The poll is not an election result, but it points to a sharper Flemish right-wing contest than the March 2026 Ipsos wave, which put N-VA and Vlaams Belang virtually level. It also contrasts with the 2024 federal election result in Flanders, where official election data gave N-VA 25.56% and Vlaams Belang 21.81%. For voters and party strategists, the signal is about momentum, not seats yet.
For Flemish voters, party members, public-sector workers, businesses and civic groups, the Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey is an early warning about the political weather before the 2029 election cycle. If sustained, a Vlaams Belang lead would increase pressure on N-VA to defend its right flank while governing federally with French-speaking and centre-left partners. For residents outside Flanders, the poll matters because Flemish seat arithmetic can decide future federal coalitions, budget negotiations and state-reform demands.
Vlaams Belang (Flemish nationalist far-right party, founded in 2004 after Vlaams Blok was dissolved) is the main anti-immigration and Flemish separatist opposition party in Flanders. N-VA (New Flemish Alliance, Flemish nationalist conservative party founded in 2001) is Belgium's largest governing party at federal level. Bart De Wever (N-VA politician, prime minister since 3 February 2025) leads the federal Arizona coalition. Ipsos (international polling company) runs the Grand Baromètre, a recurring Belgian voting-intention poll. Grand Baromètre (Belgian political polling series) measures party support separately in Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels. Vooruit (Flemish social-democratic party), CD&V (Flemish Christian-democratic party), PVDA-PTB (unitary far-left party), Groen (Flemish green party) and Anders (liberal successor to Open VLD, renamed in 2026) are the other Flemish parties in the poll. Cordon sanitaire (Belgian political practice since 1989) refers to parties refusing coalitions with the far right.
Background
Official 2024 federal election data gave N-VA 25.56% in Flanders and Vlaams Belang 21.81%, while official Flemish Parliament results put N-VA at 23.88% and Vlaams Belang at 22.66%. Vlaams Belang had already rebuilt from its post-2004 isolation, rising strongly in 2019 and again in 2024. The long-standing cordon sanitaire has kept the party out of federal and Flemish governments, although local breakthroughs after the 13 October 2024 municipal elections showed the barrier weakening in some communes. N-VA's challenge is older: it has often absorbed nationalist voters by presenting a governable alternative to Vlaams Belang.
Why now
The story is timely because the June 2026 Ipsos Grand Baromètre is the first open polling wave after the March 2026 near-tie to show Vlaams Belang clearly ahead of N-VA in Flanders.
What to watch
Watch the next Ipsos Grand Baromètre and De Stemming survey for confirmation, plus federal budget, migration and labour-market debates where N-VA may face pressure from Vlaams Belang's polling lead.
Impact
Regional — The Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey shows different political centres of gravity by region: it puts Vlaams Belang first in Flanders, PS first in Wallonia with 29.0%, and PTB-PVDA first in Brussels with 24.8%. That divergence matters federally because Belgian coalition-building depends on matching separate Dutch- and French-speaking party systems. In Flanders the immediate pressure falls on N-VA; in Wallonia and Brussels, the same poll points to left-wing competition around PS and PTB-PVDA rather than a Vlaams Belang-N-VA duel.
Opposing perspectives
- Vlaams Belang leadership
Vlaams Belang's strongest reading is that the Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey shows a durable Flemish demand for tougher migration, security and autonomy politics. The party would argue that repeated high polling despite exclusion from most coalitions proves the cordon sanitaire frustrates, rather than neutralises, a large voter bloc.
- N-VA / federal government camp
N-VA's strongest reading is that mid-term polls are volatile and that governing parties often pay a temporary price for budget, pension and labour-market decisions. The federal-government camp can argue that N-VA's value lies in converting Flemish nationalist priorities into policy, while Vlaams Belang remains untested in broad coalition government.
- Francophone political framing
The French-language Grand Baromètre framing places the Flemish result inside a wider Belgian fragmentation: PS leads Wallonia, PTB-PVDA leads Brussels and Vlaams Belang leads Flanders. That perspective treats the poll less as a Flemish two-party race and more as another sign that federal coalition arithmetic is becoming harder across language lines.
- Academic election researchers
The 2024 Belgian federal-election analysis by Camatarri, Baudewyns, Dandoy and Reuchamps frames the previous election as a race to the right. From that perspective, the June 2026 poll is not a standalone shock but a continuation of a competitive right-wing field in which N-VA and Vlaams Belang contest overlapping electorates.
Sources & evidence
- View sourceHet Laatste Nieuws - Slechtste peiling voor N-VA sinds verkiezingen, Vlaams Belang met voorsprong grootste partij van VlPrimary· hln.be· 12 June 2026Retrieved 12 June 2026· 33 days ago· Dated
- View sourceLe Soir - Grand Baromètre: le MR rattrapé par Les Engagés en Wallonie, l'extrême gauche domine à Bruxelles· lesoir.be· 12 June 2026Retrieved 12 June 2026· 33 days ago· Dated
- View sourceRTBF - L'Enquête nationale 2026: le MR dégringole, le PS et le PTB en profitent pour devenir leaders en Wallonie et à Br· rtbf.be· 29 May 2026Retrieved 12 June 2026· 47 days ago· Dated
- View sourceVRT NWS - Peiling De Stemming: Vooruit beloond voor regeringsdeelname, Open VLD flirt met kiesdrempel· vrt.be· 23 May 2025Retrieved 12 June 2026· 418 days ago· Dated