Vlaams Belang opens clear Flemish polling lead over N-VA
A June 2026 Ipsos poll gives Vlaams Belang a clear Flemish lead, tightening pressure on governing N-VA before the next electoral cycle.
In 30 seconds
- The Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey puts Vlaams Belang at 26.6% in Flanders and N-VA at 22.3%.
- The same Ipsos wave surveyed 1,001 respondents in Flanders between 1 and 9 June 2026.
- Official 2024 federal election data gave N-VA 25.56% in Flanders and Vlaams Belang 21.81%.
- The March 2026 Ipsos wave put N-VA at 25.5% and Vlaams Belang at 25.4% in Flanders.
Vlaams Belang (Flemish nationalist far-right party, founded in 2004 after Vlaams Blok was dissolved) is the main anti-immigration and Flemish separatist opposition party in Flanders. N-VA (New Flemish Alliance, Flemish nationalist conservative party founded in 2001) is Belgium's largest governing party at federal level. Bart De Wever (N-VA politician, prime minister since 3 February 2025) leads the federal Arizona coalition. Ipsos (international polling company) runs the Grand Baromètre, a recurring Belgian voting-intention poll. Grand Baromètre (Belgian political polling series) measures party support separately in Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels. Vooruit (Flemish social-democratic party), CD&V (Flemish Christian-democratic party), PVDA-PTB (unitary far-left party), Groen (Flemish green party) and Anders (liberal successor to Open VLD, renamed in 2026) are the other Flemish parties in the poll. Cordon sanitaire (Belgian political practice since 1989) refers to parties refusing coalitions with the far right.
Background
Official 2024 federal election data gave N-VA 25.56% in Flanders and Vlaams Belang 21.81%, while official Flemish Parliament results put N-VA at 23.88% and Vlaams Belang at 22.66%. Vlaams Belang had already rebuilt from its post-2004 isolation, rising strongly in 2019 and again in 2024. The long-standing cordon sanitaire has kept the party out of federal and Flemish governments, although local breakthroughs after the 13 October 2024 municipal elections showed the barrier weakening in some communes. N-VA's challenge is older: it has often absorbed nationalist voters by presenting a governable alternative to Vlaams Belang.
Why now
The story is timely because the June 2026 Ipsos Grand Baromètre is the first open polling wave after the March 2026 near-tie to show Vlaams Belang clearly ahead of N-VA in Flanders.
What to watch
Watch the next Ipsos Grand Baromètre and De Stemming survey for confirmation, plus federal budget, migration and labour-market debates where N-VA may face pressure from Vlaams Belang's polling lead.
What to do
Nothing changes immediately for voters or public services because this is a poll, not an election. The practical takeaway is political: residents should expect sharper Flemish campaigning around migration, security, purchasing power and state reform, while federal coalition parties may frame policy announcements with one eye on Vlaams Belang's polling strength.
Impact
Regional — The Ipsos Grand Baromètre survey shows different political centres of gravity by region: it puts Vlaams Belang first in Flanders, PS first in Wallonia with 29.0%, and PTB-PVDA first in Brussels with 24.8%. That divergence matters federally because Belgian coalition-building depends on matching separate Dutch- and French-speaking party systems. In Flanders the immediate pressure falls on N-VA; in Wallonia and Brussels, the same poll points to left-wing competition around PS and PTB-PVDA rather than a Vlaams Belang-N-VA duel.
How we got here
- 2024-06-09
Official federal election results gave N-VA 25.56% in Flanders and Vlaams Belang 21.81%.
- 2025-02-03
Bart De Wever became prime minister at the head of the Arizona federal coalition.
- 2026-03-02/2026-03-09
The March 2026 Ipsos Grand Baromètre wave put N-VA and Vlaams Belang virtually tied in Flanders.
- 2026-06-01/2026-06-09
Ipsos fielded the June 2026 Grand Baromètre survey.
- 2026-06-12
The June 2026 Grand Baromètre figures showed Vlaams Belang ahead of N-VA in Flanders.
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- 10 Nov 2025, 01:00
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This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.