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ANALYSIS

US and Iran sign interim deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz

The interim US-Iran deal lowers immediate Hormuz pressure but leaves the nuclear settlement, sanctions timetable and regional security guarantees unresolved.

Belgium Impulse Editorial·18 June 2026·2 min read·
Well established· 1 primary source + 2 official documents + 4 independent reporting sources · Academic sources: 1

In 30 seconds

  • US officials said the memorandum creates a 60-day window for a final nuclear and sanctions agreement.
  • US officials said Iran must restore commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
  • US officials said the deal includes immediate oil-export waivers and conditional broader sanctions relief.
  • Ghalibaf said Iran may charge ships after a 60-day fee-free period.

How we got here

  1. 2015-07-14

    Iran and world powers concluded the JCPOA in Vienna after more than 18 months of negotiations, according to historical accounts.

  2. 2018-05-08

    Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA during his first presidency.

  3. 2026-02-28

    The 2026 Iran war began, and subsequent Hormuz disruption became a central global economic risk.

  4. 2026-03-10

    UN Trade and Development warned that Hormuz disruption could transmit energy, fertilizer and transport shocks across global markets.

  5. 2026-06-17

    US officials said Washington and Tehran had signed an interim memorandum and opened a 60-day negotiation window.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Iran's parliamentary speaker and chief negotiator in the 2026 talks) has become Tehran's public face in the interim deal. Donald Trump (US president, returned to office in 2025) signed the memorandum and presented it as an economic de-escalation. JD Vance (US vice-president) is expected to lead the US delegation in follow-up talks. Masoud Pezeshkian (Iran's president, elected in 2024) is the Iranian executive signatory cited in US accounts. The Strait of Hormuz (narrow Gulf passage between Iran and Oman) is a major oil, LNG and fertilizer route. The International Atomic Energy Agency (UN nuclear watchdog based in Vienna) would supervise any uranium down-blending. Hezbollah (Iran-backed Lebanese armed movement and party) is relevant because the memorandum refers to Lebanon. The G7 (forum of major industrial democracies plus the EU) has backed follow-on talks on missiles and regional activity.

Background

The Associated Press account notes that the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action took more than 18 months to negotiate and relied on detailed limits on enrichment, centrifuges and heavy water production. Trump withdrew the United States from that pact in 2018. The current memorandum compresses the next nuclear phase into 60 days, while US officials say major implementation questions remain. UN Trade and Development compared the Hormuz disruption with recent global shocks such as COVID-19 and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, where energy, transport and agricultural-input problems moved quickly into household prices.

The wider picture

Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint where military pressure, energy dependence and nuclear diplomacy intersect. The memorandum suggests both sides recognised that controlling escalation mattered more than maximal battlefield demands. It also shows the limits of Western leverage: Iran may gain oil waivers and negotiating space while Europe and the G7 push to add missiles and regional proxies to a deal Tehran may resist.

Why now

The immediate trigger is the signing of the interim memorandum after months of conflict and market pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. Ghalibaf's statement matters now because it signals Tehran's public justification for accepting negotiations after sustained military confrontation.

Context & what happens next

What to watch

Watch whether commercial shipping actually returns through Hormuz within the stated 30-day window, whether follow-up talks in Switzerland produce a verified uranium plan, and whether the G7 can keep missiles and regional armed groups on the agenda without collapsing the negotiations.

What to do

Belgian readers should not expect instant price normalisation. Fuel, freight and fertilizer costs may ease only if insurers, shipowners and energy traders believe the route is reliably safe. Businesses exposed to transport or energy contracts should watch implementation signals rather than the signing ceremony alone.

Evidence
Well established · 1 primary source + 2 official documents + 4 independent reporting sources · Academic sources: 1
Explore evidence
Al Jazeera - Ghalibaf says talks delivered more results than war
Published:
18 Jun 2026, 02:00
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18 Jun 2026
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Associated Press - The interim US-Iran deal leaves the fate of Tehran's nuclear program still to be negotiated
Published:
18 Jun 2026, 02:00
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18 Jun 2026
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Axios - U.S. and Iran sign deal ahead of schedule
Published:
17 Jun 2026, 02:00
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18 Jun 2026
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The Guardian - US-Iran deal takeaways: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, waived oil sanctions and Lebanon
Published:
17 Jun 2026, 02:00
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18 Jun 2026
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The Guardian - US releases text of Iran peace plan as Trump says deal averts 'worldwide depression'
Published:
18 Jun 2026, 02:00
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18 Jun 2026
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UN Trade and Development - Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development
Published:
10 Mar 2026, 01:00
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18 Jun 2026
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IAEA - Monitoring and Verification in Iran
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18 Jun 2026
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Atlantic Council - The Iran war's economic fallout won't stop at oil: agriculture and aluminum are next, Eduardo Gomez H
Published:
27 Mar 2026, 01:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
18 Jun 2026
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Al Jazeera
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18 Jun 2026
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