Tigray leaders restore old government as Ethiopia peace deal frays

Eritrea’s 1993 independence left Ethiopia landlocked, and the two states fought a border war from 1998 to 2000 before a formal rapprochement in 2018. The Tigray war began in November 2020 and ended with the African Union-mediated Pretoria Agreement on 2 November 2022. The UN International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia reported in 2023 that alleged violations by multiple parties required continued scrutiny and accountability. Early 2026 clashes in Tigray, accusations over Eritrean involvement and TPLF moves to revive pre-war institutions show how the settlement’s unresolved political and security clauses remain combustible.

The Horn of Africa sits between Red Sea shipping lanes, Sudan’s war, Gulf-state influence and Nile Basin rivalries. Ethiopia’s landlocked status, Eritrea’s port geography and Sudan’s fragmentation make northern Ethiopia more than a domestic conflict zone. A renewed war could pull regional patrons and rivals into a conflict that already has cross-border logic.

The issue is timely because Tigray’s leaders have revived pre-war institutions after early 2026 clashes, while Ethiopia and Eritrea have escalated accusations over armed groups and Red Sea ambitions. Those moves test the Pretoria Agreement’s weakest clauses at the same time.