Pakistan pushes US and Iran toward war-ending deal
Pakistan's prime minister said Washington and Tehran had agreed on the wording of a draft deal to end the 2026 Iran war, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said an agreement had “never been closer”. The reported framework remains unsigned and politically fragile: Araghchi said nuclear terms would be negotiated during a 60-day follow-up period, while a senior U.S. administration official said the emerging text would start a process to destroy or remove Iran's highly enriched uranium. The Strait of Hormuz is central to the talks because the U.S. Energy Information Administration describes it as a critical oil transit chokepoint, and current disruption has already moved energy prices. The Lebanon question is the unresolved fault line. Araghchi said the initial deal should cover all fronts, including Lebanon, but Israeli officials said Israel is not party to the U.S.-Iran negotiation and would not withdraw from occupied zones.
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The Iran Conflict: Nuclear, Regional and Diplomatic
The decades-long confrontation between Iran and its adversaries — the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and proxies across the region — covering the nuclear file, sanctions, the JCPOA collapse, the post-October 2023 escalation, and current diplomatic openings.
About this story
Shehbaz Sharif (Pakistan's prime minister since 2022) is presenting Pakistan as the lead mediator in the U.S.-Iran talks. Abbas Araghchi (Iran's foreign minister and former nuclear negotiator) is Tehran's main public voice on the emerging memorandum. Donald Trump (U.S. president in his second term) is the U.S. decision-maker publicly tying the deal to Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme. The Strait of Hormuz (narrow sea passage between Iran, Oman and the United Arab Emirates) is a major route for Gulf oil and gas exports. Hezbollah (Iran-aligned Lebanese Shia political and military movement) is fighting Israel in Lebanon. Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel's prime minister) and Israel Katz (Israel's defence minister) are signalling that Israel reserves freedom of action. The International Atomic Energy Agency (UN nuclear watchdog based in Vienna) is pressing Iran for access to nuclear sites. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (proposed 2026 U.S.-Iran framework) is the draft deal now being discussed.
How to read this story
The history
The Hormuz dispute echoes earlier U.S.-Iran crises in the same waterway. In 1988, U.S. forces fought Iran in Operation Praying Mantis during the tanker war, and the U.S. Navy shot down Iran Air Flight 655 over the Gulf months later, killing 290 people. In 2011-2012, Iran threatened to close Hormuz during sanctions pressure over its nuclear programme. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action showed that nuclear limits can be negotiated, but the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 showed how quickly a deal can lose durability when domestic politics shift.
The geopolitics
The draft tests whether coercion and mediation can be converted into a durable settlement. The United States wants to end an expensive war without appearing to concede on uranium; Iran wants sanctions relief, Hormuz leverage and recognition of regional interests; Israel wants freedom to strike Iranian and allied targets. Pakistan's mediation role also signals a more multipolar diplomatic field.
Why now
The story is timely because Pakistan's prime minister said on June 12, 2026 that a final agreed text existed, while Araghchi said the memorandum had never been closer. Those statements followed renewed fire between Iran, the U.S. and Israel and market hopes that Hormuz could reopen.
What to watch
Watch whether Washington and Tehran formally sign the memorandum, whether Iran allows credible nuclear-site access, whether Hormuz traffic visibly increases, and whether Israel scales back or expands operations in Lebanon. Any mismatch between U.S. and Iranian descriptions of sanctions relief or uranium handling could derail the text.
International angle
The centre of gravity is international: a U.S.-Iran deal would affect Gulf security, Israel's campaign in Lebanon, sanctions policy, oil flows and nuclear verification. Belgium enters through EU energy exposure and Brussels-based diplomacy, but the decisive actors are Washington, Tehran, Islamabad, Israel, the IAEA and regional Gulf states.
What this means for you
For Belgian readers, nothing changes immediately at the pump or on energy bills until shipping and market data confirm steadier Hormuz flows. Businesses exposed to fuel, freight or petrochemical inputs should expect volatility until a signed text and implementation details exist. Travellers and dual nationals should continue following official Belgian foreign-affairs advisories for Iran, Israel, Lebanon and Gulf transit routes.
What happens next
Officials in Washington and Tehran are expected to decide whether to approve the draft text in the coming days. If it is signed, negotiators would still need to define nuclear verification, uranium removal or destruction, sanctions relief, frozen assets and Hormuz transit rules. Lebanon remains the biggest immediate spoiler because Israel says it is not bound by the U.S.-Iran track.
Potential consequences
If the draft is signed and shipping normalises, Belgian consumers and firms could see some easing in fuel and freight-price pressure. If the text collapses, the next phase could be more dangerous than the current pause because each side has already invested public credibility in the talks. A weak deal could also split U.S., Israeli and European priorities if it lowers energy risk while leaving nuclear and proxy questions unsettled.
Opposing perspectives
- Pakistan mediation team
Pakistan's prime minister presents the draft as a rare diplomatic opening: the agreed text should be treated as a basis for de-escalation, not as a finished peace settlement. That frame argues that imperfect wording is still preferable to renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, continued Hormuz disruption and a widening Lebanon front.
- Iranian government
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi frames the memorandum as close but not complete, with final details to be disclosed only after internal consultations. Tehran's strongest argument is that an initial war-ending text must cover sanctions, Hormuz transit arrangements and Lebanon, while nuclear details can be negotiated after fighting stops.
- Israeli government
Israeli officials argue that Israel cannot be bound by a U.S.-Iran text negotiated without it. Their position is that any deal must prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon, weaken Iran's missile and proxy networks, and preserve Israel's ability to act in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank.
- IAEA and Western non-proliferation officials
The International Atomic Energy Agency's pressure campaign treats verification as the test of any diplomatic breakthrough. This frame says a ceasefire or asset-release bargain is not enough unless inspectors regain credible access to nuclear sites and the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is clarified.
Timeline
- 2015-07-14·Iran and world powers concluded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear programme.
- 2018-05-08·The United States withdrew from the JCPOA under President Donald Trump.
- 2025-06-13·Israel launched the Twelve-Day War against Iran after escalating nuclear tensions.
- 2026-02-28·The 2026 Iran war began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, according to the sources consulted.
- 2026-04-07·A fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire began, according to accounts of the current negotiation track.
- 2026-06-10·The IAEA board demanded urgent Iranian cooperation and access to nuclear sites.
- 2026-06-12·Pakistan's prime minister said a final agreed text had been reached.
Glossary
- IAEA
- The International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog based in Vienna that verifies safeguards and nuclear-material declarations.
- Strait of Hormuz
- A narrow maritime passage between Iran and Oman used by Gulf oil and gas exporters to reach global markets.
- Memorandum of Understanding
- A political framework text that records agreed principles but may still require detailed implementing agreements.
- Highly enriched uranium
- Uranium enriched to levels far above civilian reactor fuel; 90% purity is generally described as weapons-grade.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.