Is Vlaams Belang pulling away from N-VA in Flanders after its worst post-election poll?
A new HLN/VTM political poll reports Vlaams Belang with a clear lead as the largest party in Vlaanderen, while N-VA records its weakest polling result since the June 2024 elections.
In 30 seconds
- HLN reports Vlaams Belang as clearly the largest party in Vlaanderen in the latest poll.
- The same report describes the result as N-VA's weakest poll since the June 2024 elections.
- Bart De Wever is Prime Minister of Belgium and the leading N-VA figure in federal government.
- Tom Van Grieken chairs Vlaams Belang, which remains outside federal and Flemish government.
The subject is the balance of power on the Flemish right. N-VA, formally the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, is a Flemish nationalist and centre-right party that became Belgium's largest federal party in the 2024 Chamber election and now leads the federal government through Prime Minister Bart De Wever. Vlaams Belang is a far-right Flemish nationalist opposition party led by Tom Van Grieken. It made major gains in the 2024 federal, Flemish and European elections but remained outside government because most parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against cooperation with it. The new poll, reported by Het Laatste Nieuws, places Vlaams Belang ahead in Flanders and marks the slechtste peiling N-VA since verkiezingen, according to the seed report.
Background
Flemish politics has been shaped for decades by competition between nationalist parties and by Belgium's federal structure. N-VA emerged from the Volksunie tradition and became the dominant Flemish party after 2010 by combining Flemish autonomy with a governing image. Vlaams Belang, successor to Vlaams Blok, has long been excluded by the cordon sanitaire, but it has repeatedly polled strongly and gained in the 2019 and 2024 cycles. The 2024 elections were important because N-VA survived the Vlaams Belang challenge, remained the largest party in the Chamber, and then moved from opposition into federal leadership. That makes any post-election slide more sensitive than an ordinary mid-term dip.
What to do
Do not read the poll as a change of government. Read it as a pressure indicator: federal negotiations may become more sensitive, Flemish campaign language may sharpen, and parties will test messages on migration, purchasing power, pensions, security and Flemish autonomy well before the 2029 elections.
Impact
Regional — The impact is primarily Flemish. In Vlaanderen, the poll strengthens the perception that Vlaams Belang is setting the pressure line on the right, while N-VA must balance its Flemish profile with federal responsibility. In Brussels and Wallonia, the immediate effect is indirect: francophone coalition partners will watch whether N-VA hardens its tone to prevent further leakage to Vlaams Belang.
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This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.