Is Vlaams Belang pulling away from N-VA in Flanders after its worst post-election poll?
A new HLN/VTM political poll reports Vlaams Belang with a clear lead as the largest party in Vlaanderen, while N-VA records its weakest polling result since the June 2024 elections. The finding matters because N-VA is no longer only a Flemish opposition force: its former chairman, Bart De Wever, is now Prime Minister of Belgium, and his party anchors the federal Arizona coalition with MR, Les Engagés, CD&V and Vooruit. Polls do not allocate power, and Belgium is still in the 2024-2029 legislative cycle, but the signal is politically awkward. It suggests that N-VA is paying a governing-party cost while Vlaams Belang, led by party chairman Tom Van Grieken, can keep campaigning from opposition on migration, purchasing power, security and Flemish autonomy.
Trust & Evidence📚 5 sources· ✓ Editor reviewed· 🧠 AI-checked· Trust status: not yet independently verifiedView evidence & verification Hide
Verification record
- 📚 5 verified sources — Het Laatste Nieuws · Belgium.be - Composition of the Belgian federal government · AP News - Belgium has a new prime minister · Belgian election results portal - 2024 elections …
- 🧠 High confidence — AI-checked, editor-approved
- 🇧🇪 Belgian impact: High
- 📜 Provenance recorded & timestamped
Evidence is generated from the OIS evidence chain and reviewed before appearing on Belgium Pulse.
Powered by OIS / Evidentia
About this story
The subject is the balance of power on the Flemish right. N-VA, formally the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, is a Flemish nationalist and centre-right party that became Belgium's largest federal party in the 2024 Chamber election and now leads the federal government through Prime Minister Bart De Wever. Vlaams Belang is a far-right Flemish nationalist opposition party led by Tom Van Grieken. It made major gains in the 2024 federal, Flemish and European elections but remained outside government because most parties maintain a cordon sanitaire against cooperation with it. The new poll, reported by Het Laatste Nieuws, places Vlaams Belang ahead in Flanders and marks the slechtste peiling N-VA since verkiezingen, according to the seed report.
How to read this story
The history
Flemish politics has been shaped for decades by competition between nationalist parties and by Belgium's federal structure. N-VA emerged from the Volksunie tradition and became the dominant Flemish party after 2010 by combining Flemish autonomy with a governing image. Vlaams Belang, successor to Vlaams Blok, has long been excluded by the cordon sanitaire, but it has repeatedly polled strongly and gained in the 2019 and 2024 cycles. The 2024 elections were important because N-VA survived the Vlaams Belang challenge, remained the largest party in the Chamber, and then moved from opposition into federal leadership. That makes any post-election slide more sensitive than an ordinary mid-term dip.
Regional impact
The impact is primarily Flemish. In Vlaanderen, the poll strengthens the perception that Vlaams Belang is setting the pressure line on the right, while N-VA must balance its Flemish profile with federal responsibility. In Brussels and Wallonia, the immediate effect is indirect: francophone coalition partners will watch whether N-VA hardens its tone to prevent further leakage to Vlaams Belang.
Local impact
For municipalities in Flanders, the poll reinforces the importance of local Vlaams Belang strength after the party's 2024 local breakthroughs, including its first mayoralty in Ninove. Local coalition choices remain separate from federal arithmetic but can shift the perceived durability of the cordon sanitaire.
International angle
The international angle is secondary. EU and diplomatic readers should mainly see this as a domestic Flemish signal that may affect Belgium's federal stability and tone on migration, budget discipline and institutional reform, rather than as a direct EU policy change.
What this means for you
Do not read the poll as a change of government. Read it as a pressure indicator: federal negotiations may become more sensitive, Flemish campaign language may sharpen, and parties will test messages on migration, purchasing power, pensions, security and Flemish autonomy well before the 2029 elections.
Opposing perspectives
- Vlaams Belang opposition frame
Vlaams Belang will read the poll as evidence that a large part of the Flemish electorate wants a sharper nationalist and migration line than the governing parties are delivering. Tom Van Grieken's party can argue that N-VA entered federal power but is constrained by francophone and centre-left partners.
- N-VA governing frame
N-VA can answer that polls are not elections and that governing Belgium requires results, not protest positioning. From this view, Prime Minister Bart De Wever's test is whether the federal coalition can deliver on budget discipline, labour-market reform, migration and defence while keeping Flemish voters convinced that N-VA still shapes policy.
- Francophone coalition frame
MR and Les Engagés, N-VA's francophone partners in the federal Arizona coalition, have an interest in preventing Flemish polling pressure from pulling the government into symbolic communautaire conflict. Their priority is likely to be federal governability, budget work and socio-economic reforms rather than a race between Flemish nationalist parties.
- Centre-left and green opposition frame
Vooruit is inside the federal government but competes with Groen and PVDA-PTB on the left for voters uneasy about austerity and right-wing pressure. These constituencies may frame the poll less as a Vlaams Belang breakthrough than as evidence that the federal debate is being pulled towards migration, security and identity at the expense of social policy.
Related to this story
Pulse Insight — This topic connects to 10 associations, 3 funding programmes, 127 upcoming events and 4441 jobs through the Flanders ecosystem.
Live connections from the Belgium Impulse ecosystem — not recommendations.
This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.