Iranian leaders review US proposal after Trump cancels strikes
Iran's leadership is reviewing a proposed memorandum with the United States after President Donald Trump said he had cancelled planned strikes and expected a signing within days. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said most of the text had been worked through but that Tehran had not made a final decision, while Fars, the Iranian outlet linked to the Revolutionary Guards, said no preliminary text had been approved. The draft described by mediators would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, extend the ceasefire for 60 days and set a framework for later nuclear talks, but it would leave the hardest questions to a second agreement. The IAEA board demanded on June 10 that Iran provide urgent access and information on nuclear material, underlining why verification remains the core test. For Europe, including Belgium, the immediate issue is energy and inflation risk from the war and any reopening of Hormuz.
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About this story
The Strait of Hormuz (the narrow Gulf shipping passage between Iran and Oman) is a major route for oil and liquefied natural gas. Donald Trump (US president, serving his second term since 2025) is driving the US side of the talks. Esmail Baghaei (Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson) is the official voice used here for Tehran's public position. Mojtaba Khamenei (Iran's supreme leader since 2026, according to current reporting) would be the decisive Iranian authority for final approval. Abbas Araghchi (Iranian foreign minister and former nuclear negotiator) has led Tehran's diplomacy. Ali Al-Thawadi (Qatari mediator named in current reporting) has been shuttling between the parties. The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN-linked nuclear watchdog based in Vienna) verifies nuclear safeguards. The ECB (European Central Bank, eurozone monetary authority in Frankfurt) sets interest rates for the euro area, including Belgium.
How to read this story
The history
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action limited Iran's nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief, and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsed the arrangement. Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in May 2018, after which Iran gradually expanded nuclear activity. The IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with safeguards obligations in June 2025, and Israel and the United States later struck Iranian nuclear sites. The IAEA board again demanded urgent cooperation on June 10, 2026. This history explains Tehran's public mistrust and Washington's insistence that any new bargain include verification, nuclear limits and a mechanism for sanctions relief.
The geopolitics
The proposed deal tests whether coercive pressure can produce a limited diplomatic pause without resolving the strategic contest over Iran's nuclear capacity, missiles and regional alliances. Qatar and Pakistan's mediation shows middle powers trying to prevent a wider Gulf war, while Israel's distance from the memorandum signals that US-Iran diplomacy may not automatically bind regional actors most directly threatened by Iran.
Why now
The trigger is Trump's June 11 claim that he cancelled planned strikes because a deal was close, after a week of renewed military escalation and an IAEA resolution demanding Iranian cooperation. Iran's public response turned the story from a claimed breakthrough into a test of whether a draft text has real authority.
What to watch
Watch for a formal signing date, whether Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly or indirectly approves the text, and whether ships begin moving through Hormuz without tolls. The next signal after any signature would be whether the IAEA receives access and whether sanctions relief begins in verifiable phases.
Regional impact
The effects split across EU and Belgian federal levels rather than Belgian regions. The ECB's rate decision affects borrowers and savers across the euro area, including Belgium, while EU foreign-policy services in Brussels have an institutional stake in non-proliferation and Gulf de-escalation. Belgium's federal government would face the downstream effects through energy prices, inflation-linked spending and diplomatic coordination. Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels would feel similar consumer and business price pressures, so there is no distinct regional policy split inside Belgium.
International angle
The story sits at the intersection of Gulf security, US-Iran diplomacy, Israeli threat perceptions and European economic exposure. For the EU, the issue is not only whether Hormuz reopens but whether any US-Iran understanding preserves credible nuclear verification. Brussels matters institutionally because EU foreign-policy and eurozone economic responses will be shaped by the same energy and security signals.
What this means for you
Belgian readers should not treat the proposal as an immediate return to normal energy prices. A signed memorandum could reduce market pressure, but fuel, freight, travel and borrowing costs will depend on actual shipping flows, ECB follow-up decisions and whether the nuclear file moves to verifiable implementation rather than another short truce.
What happens next
Trump said a signing could come within days, possibly in Europe, but Iran has not announced final approval. Mediators are expected to keep working on the text, including sanctions relief, frozen assets and Hormuz reopening arrangements. If the memorandum is signed, the harder phase would be a second nuclear agreement with inspection, uranium-stockpile and enforcement provisions. If it fails, renewed strikes and shipping disruption remain plausible risks.
Potential consequences
If the draft is signed and implemented, oil and shipping markets could price in lower risk, easing pressure on eurozone inflation and Belgian fuel-sensitive sectors. A fragile or ambiguous memorandum could also create new disputes over compliance, especially if sanctions relief arrives before nuclear verification. Failure would leave the ECB, EU governments and Belgian businesses facing prolonged uncertainty over energy prices, freight insurance, aviation costs and regional escalation.
Opposing perspectives
- Trump administration
The Trump administration frames the proposed memorandum as a practical de-escalation path: reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keep a ceasefire alive for 60 days, and use sanctions relief as leverage for later nuclear concessions. Its strongest argument is that a limited first agreement is better than waiting for a complete nuclear settlement while the war keeps damaging energy markets.
- Iranian government
The Iranian government frames the proposal through mistrust. Esmail Baghaei's position is that Tehran has reviewed much of the text but cannot accept shifting US positions or compromise on red lines. Its strongest case is that sanctions relief, frozen assets and security guarantees must be credible before Iran exposes itself to domestic and strategic risk.
- IAEA and Western non-proliferation states
The IAEA board and the governments backing its resolution frame the immediate problem as verification, not only diplomacy. Their strongest argument is that a ceasefire or shipping deal cannot settle the nuclear issue unless inspectors obtain access, nuclear material is accounted for, and any future commitments can be independently checked.
- Israel
Israel's position, as reflected by the prime minister's office, is that it is not a party to the memorandum and will judge any outcome by whether enriched material is removed, enrichment infrastructure is dismantled, missile production is limited and Iranian support for armed groups ends. Its strongest argument is that a vague first-stage deal could lower pressure without reducing strategic threats.
Timeline
- 2015-07-20·UN Security Council Resolution 2231 endorsed the JCPOA.
- 2018-05-08·Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA.
- 2025-06-12·The IAEA board found Iran non-compliant with safeguards obligations for the first time in 20 years.
- 2026-06-10·The IAEA board demanded urgent Iranian cooperation and access to nuclear sites.
- 2026-06-11·Trump said he had cancelled planned strikes and expected a deal to be signed within days.
- 2026-06-12·Iranian officials said the proposal remained under review and no final decision had been reached.
Glossary
- JCPOA
- The 2015 Iran nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, limiting Iran's nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief.
- IAEA safeguards
- Inspection and reporting obligations that allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to verify declared nuclear material is not diverted to weapons use.
- ECB
- The European Central Bank, which sets monetary policy for the euro area, including Belgium.
- Snapback sanctions
- A mechanism in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 allowing previously lifted UN sanctions on Iran to be restored after significant non-performance.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.