Gulf states weigh security reset as Iran talks edge forward

Gulf security has repeatedly swung between US protection, regional accommodation and crisis management. During the 1980s Tanker War, the United States escorted Kuwaiti tankers through Gulf waters under Operation Earnest Will. In 2019, Iran proposed the Hormuz Peace Initiative, but Gulf Arab trust remained limited. In March 2023, China brokered the Saudi-Iran restoration of diplomatic relations, showing Gulf states were already diversifying diplomacy before the 2026 war. The current debate revives those precedents under more acute conditions: attacks, disrupted navigation and uncertainty over whether Washington's guarantees reduce or import risk.

The war highlights a broader shift from US-dominated Gulf security toward a more crowded order involving regional diplomacy, China-brokered detente, Pakistani mediation, European maritime deployments and Gulf self-defence. Gulf states want US protection but also want fewer incentives for Iran to treat US-hosting neighbours as legitimate targets. That tension will shape any post-war security design.

The trigger is the reported movement in US-Iran diplomacy and the prospect of a post-war settlement. As hostilities edge toward a possible deal, Gulf governments and EU officials are moving from immediate crisis response to the harder question of who secures Gulf waters afterward.