Gulf states weigh security reset as Iran talks edge forward
Gulf governments are likely to reassess their security model if Washington and Tehran turn current ceasefire diplomacy into a durable settlement. The lead issue is not a formal treaty yet, but a strategic lesson: the Gulf Cooperation Council states relied for decades on a US-centred security umbrella, yet the Iran war put Gulf cities, energy facilities and shipping routes within the line of fire. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said securing freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz after the war would require more ships and possibly an expanded EU naval mission. UNCTAD's rapid assessment says the strait carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade plus significant LNG and fertilizer flows, making any new Gulf security architecture a global economic question. For Belgium, the relevance is indirect but real: energy prices, shipping costs, EU diplomacy and maritime-security decisions all pass through Brussels-facing institutions and markets.
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The Iran Conflict: Nuclear, Regional and Diplomatic
The decades-long confrontation between Iran and its adversaries — the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and proxies across the region — covering the nuclear file, sanctions, the JCPOA collapse, the post-October 2023 escalation, and current diplomatic openings.
About this story
The Gulf Cooperation Council (regional bloc founded in 1981 by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) is the main Gulf Arab forum in this story. The Strait of Hormuz (narrow waterway between Iran, Oman and the UAE) is a critical route for Gulf energy exports. EUNAVFOR Operation Aspides (EU naval mission launched in 2024 under the Common Security and Defence Policy) protects commercial shipping from Red Sea attacks and could be adapted. Kaja Kallas (EU foreign policy chief since 2024) leads the bloc's external security diplomacy. UNCTAD (UN Trade and Development, Geneva-based UN body) analyses trade and development shocks. The Hormuz Peace Initiative (Iranian proposal announced in 2019) sought a regional security framework involving Gulf states and Iran. Pakistan (South Asian nuclear-armed state) has acted as a mediator in parts of the 2026 diplomacy.
How to read this story
The history
Gulf security has repeatedly swung between US protection, regional accommodation and crisis management. During the 1980s Tanker War, the United States escorted Kuwaiti tankers through Gulf waters under Operation Earnest Will. In 2019, Iran proposed the Hormuz Peace Initiative, but Gulf Arab trust remained limited. In March 2023, China brokered the Saudi-Iran restoration of diplomatic relations, showing Gulf states were already diversifying diplomacy before the 2026 war. The current debate revives those precedents under more acute conditions: attacks, disrupted navigation and uncertainty over whether Washington's guarantees reduce or import risk.
The geopolitics
The war highlights a broader shift from US-dominated Gulf security toward a more crowded order involving regional diplomacy, China-brokered detente, Pakistani mediation, European maritime deployments and Gulf self-defence. Gulf states want US protection but also want fewer incentives for Iran to treat US-hosting neighbours as legitimate targets. That tension will shape any post-war security design.
Why now
The trigger is the reported movement in US-Iran diplomacy and the prospect of a post-war settlement. As hostilities edge toward a possible deal, Gulf governments and EU officials are moving from immediate crisis response to the harder question of who secures Gulf waters afterward.
What to watch
Watch for a signed US-Iran text, verified reopening steps in the Strait of Hormuz, EU foreign-minister decisions on Operation Aspides, and any Gulf Cooperation Council statement on regional security talks with Iran. Insurance rates and tanker traffic will be the practical signals that markets believe security is improving.
Regional impact
The EU level is the clearest institutional channel: the European External Action Service describes Operation Aspides as an EU defensive maritime-security operation, and Kaja Kallas has linked any post-war Hormuz role to more European vessels. Belgium's federal level is touched through foreign, defence and energy-security policy, while Flanders has a practical exposure through the Port of Antwerp-Bruges and Zeebrugge's gas and logistics role. Wallonia and Brussels are affected less directly, mainly through consumer prices, business costs and EU policymaking in Brussels.
Local impact
The most concrete Belgian local exposure is the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, including Zeebrugge's role in gas and maritime logistics. Hormuz disruption does not directly close Belgian ports, but it can affect LNG availability, freight rates, bunker fuel costs and the planning assumptions of companies that move energy, chemicals, fertilizers or containerised goods through Belgian hubs.
International angle
The story links Gulf security to EU maritime policy. Kaja Kallas has tied post-war Hormuz navigation to European naval capacity, and Operation Aspides gives the EU an existing, if limited, operational platform. The wider question is whether Europe can protect commercial routes without being pulled into US-Iran military escalation or duplicating separate French-British plans.
What this means for you
Belgian readers should not expect an immediate domestic policy change from this story, but they should watch energy bills, fuel prices, freight costs and fertilizer-sensitive food prices. Businesses using Gulf-linked shipping or energy inputs may face continued volatility until navigation, insurance and diplomatic guarantees become clearer.
What happens next
The next step is diplomatic rather than automatic: Washington and Tehran would have to turn current signals into a verifiable ceasefire or settlement, after which Gulf states and external partners could decide how to secure navigation. EU ministers may revisit Operation Aspides planning, while Gulf capitals are likely to test whether engagement with Iran can coexist with US defence ties.
Potential consequences
If a settlement holds, Gulf states could invest more in air defence, naval surveillance, pipeline bypasses and regional crisis channels. If it fails, insurance premiums, route diversions and fuel-market volatility could persist even without daily attacks. For Europe, the consequence may be a larger debate over whether maritime security near Hormuz is a trade-protection task, a defence mission or a diplomatic lever tied to Iran policy.
Opposing perspectives
- EU foreign-policy officials
Kaja Kallas's public line frames Hormuz as a freedom-of-navigation problem that Europe cannot leave entirely to Washington. The strongest version of this view is that EU ships, mine-clearing capacity and possible insurance support would protect trade without making Europe a combatant in the Iran war.
- Gulf Arab security establishments
The Gulf Cooperation Council states can argue that the war exposed the limits of outsourced security: US bases may deter some threats, but they can also make host states targets. Their strongest case is for a hybrid model: keep US ties, expand local defence industries and reopen channels to Tehran.
- Iranian regional-security advocates
Supporters of a regional framework can point back to the 2019 Hormuz Peace Initiative and argue that durable Gulf security cannot be imported from outside powers. The hard counterweight is credibility: missile and drone attacks on neighbouring Gulf states make any non-aggression formula dependent on changed Iranian behaviour.
Timeline
- 2019-09·Iran announced the Hormuz Peace Initiative, proposing a regional security framework involving Gulf states.
- 2023-03-10·Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed in Beijing to restore diplomatic relations after years of rupture.
- 2024-02-19·The European Union launched Operation Aspides to protect shipping in the Red Sea area.
- 2026-02-28·The Iran war began, triggering major disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-03-10·UNCTAD published a rapid assessment warning that Hormuz disruption could affect energy, fertilizer, freight and food costs.
- 2026-05-28·Kaja Kallas said post-war freedom of navigation through Hormuz would require more ships and possibly an expanded EU mission.
- 2026-06-12·Al Jazeera published analysis on how Gulf states may manage collective security after the war.
Glossary
- CSDP
- The EU's Common Security and Defence Policy, the framework for civilian and military missions outside the Union.
- EUNAVFOR
- European Union Naval Force, the label used for EU naval operations such as Operation Aspides.
- GCC
- Gulf Cooperation Council, the regional organisation of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- LNG
- Liquefied natural gas, natural gas cooled for shipment by specialised tankers.
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This briefing was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by a Belgium Impulse editor before publication. methodology.