Can Venezuela rebuild after the double earthquake death toll passes 5,000?

Venezuelan authorities raised the confirmed death toll from the country’s 24 June double earthquake to 5,069 late on 17 July, up from 4,490 five days earlier, as recovery teams continued searching collapsed buildings. The interim government led by Delcy Rodríguez said 16,740 people had been injured, while the Associated Press reported that the coastal state of La Guaira remained the worst-affected area. The increase does not reflect a new seismic event: it comes from bodies being recovered and identified more than three weeks after the disaster.

The two earthquakes, measured by the US Geological Survey at magnitudes 7.2 and 7.5, struck northern Venezuela within less than a minute on 24 June. The USGS placed their epicentres near Yumare, west of Caracas, and recorded the stronger shock at a shallow depth of about 10 kilometres. Shallow earthquakes generally transmit more destructive energy to buildings and infrastructure than deeper events of comparable magnitude. The agency subsequently identified landslides, damaged structures and potentially isolated communities along parts of the Caribbean coast.

The official toll remains provisional. According to the Venezuelan government figures reported by AP, 856 buildings were damaged and 190 collapsed completely, while roads, bridges and other public infrastructure were also affected. Authorities had recorded 1,331 aftershocks by 17 July. The precise number of displaced households, the full condition of remote communities and the final number of victims were still uncertain because access and debris clearance remained incomplete.

The economic shock is large even by the standards of a country accustomed to severe disruption. A rapid UN Development Programme assessment initially estimated direct physical damage at $6.7 billion, equivalent to roughly 6% of Venezuelan gross domestic product. That early estimate was based on seismic modelling, satellite images and population data rather than a complete inspection of every asset, so it was always likely to change. UNDP calculated that 8.6 million people had been exposed to at least moderate shaking, including 2.1 million exposed to stronger ground movement.

Venezuela obtained about $346 million in emergency financing from the International Monetary Fund as the death toll crossed 5,000, according to reporting carried by Euronews and AFP. That sum is only about 5% of UNDP’s initial damage estimate, illustrating the financing gap facing Caracas even before the costs of lost production, temporary housing and safer reconstruction are included. Emergency money can restore basic services and import essential materials, but it cannot by itself rebuild damaged housing, transport links, schools and hospitals.

The burden falls first on households. Families that have lost a home or workplace face rent, transport and food costs precisely when local employment and commerce are interrupted. Businesses must contend with damaged premises, unreliable logistics and weaker consumer demand. Venezuela’s long economic crisis, periods of very high inflation and restricted access to international capital leave the state, banks and households with less capacity to absorb those costs than peers with deeper insurance markets and stronger public finances. Reconstruction can eventually generate employment, but only after financing, materials and functioning supply routes become available.

Energy infrastructure is an important uncertainty because petroleum remains central to Venezuela’s foreign-currency earnings. Reuters reported immediately after the earthquakes that Shell’s personnel in the country were accounted for, but that limited company update did not amount to a comprehensive assessment of the energy system. Prolonged disruption to ports, roads, electricity or refining would constrain government revenue and raise reconstruction costs. No verified evidence available with the 5,069-person toll showed a shock large enough to alter Belgian fuel bills, however, and Venezuela is not a major direct supplier to Belgian households.

Belgium’s connection is therefore real but secondary. Federal foreign affairs authorities sent shelter supplies through B-FAST after Venezuela requested international assistance. At EU level, the Commission initially announced €5 million for shelter and healthcare and activated Copernicus emergency mapping; the EU’s Venezuela response page later put earthquake-related emergency funding at €15 million. Belgian Commissioner Hadja Lahbib was among the EU officials coordinating the humanitarian response. For Belgium’s public finances and companies, this is principally an aid, logistics and export-risk issue rather than a domestic macroeconomic shock.

Direct commercial exposure is modest. Belgian Foreign Trade Agency data show that Belgium exported €83.6 million of goods to Venezuela in 2024, almost double the previous year’s €42.3 million, while imports increased from €22.3 million to €30.3 million. Even after that growth, Venezuela accounted for less than 0.1% of Belgian goods trade. Belgian exporters, freight operators and insurers with individual contracts may nevertheless face delayed payments, rerouted shipments or higher risk premiums as Venezuela diverts scarce foreign exchange towards relief and reconstruction.

The broader question is not simply how much concrete must be replaced, but whether reconstruction can improve resilience rather than restore the same vulnerabilities. The 1967 Caracas earthquake killed about 240 people, according to the USGS historical record. The much higher 2026 toll reflects the scale and location of the two shocks, but it also directs attention towards building standards, informal housing, enforcement capacity and the difficulty of mounting a disaster response amid a prolonged humanitarian crisis.

The next phase will turn on a fuller damage assessment, transparent allocation of international funds and continued access to the hardest-hit districts. Authorities must also decide which homes and public buildings can safely reopen before reconstruction begins. The death toll may rise further as clearance continues; the eventual rebuilding bill, the condition of strategic infrastructure and the number of people requiring long-term housing remain unknown.