Belgium’s first national climate-risk assessment exposes major preparedness gaps

Updated 17 August 2026, 16:00 CEST — BRUSSELS. Belgium’s Climate Risk Assessment Center, CERAC, presented the country’s first integrated climate-risk assessment in Brussels on 24 November 2025, identifying 28 major threats and concluding that Belgium must strengthen its adaptation policies. The official assessment places urgent risks including heat-related illness, flood damage to buildings, zoonotic diseases and pressure on food production.

CERAC based the assessment on scientific literature and consultations with more than 250 experts. It examined the severity of risks under global-warming scenarios of 2C, 3C and 4C, alongside the readiness of public policy. The risks cover health and wellbeing, food, ecosystems, infrastructure and buildings, and the economy and public finances.

The central finding is not that Belgium has done nothing. Federal and regional authorities have adopted adaptation measures covering water management, health, infrastructure and land use. The federal programme for 2023-2026, for example, sets measures intended to support a climate-resilient society by 2050. Flanders also has a climate-adaptation plan and its Blue Deal funds drought and water projects.

The preparedness gap lies between those policies and the scale, speed and coordination of the response. The European Environment Agency reported in its 2025 overview that Belgium had an adaptation strategy but no adopted national adaptation plan. Its Belgian profile described institutional complexity as a continuing structural challenge.

Recent experience shows what is at stake. CERAC estimates that the July 2021 floods in the Vesdre valley caused about €5.2 billion in losses and displaced thousands of people. It also says regional solidarity funds envisaged for major disasters have not been financed in Wallonia or Brussels. Separately, VRT NWS reported in June 2025 that Flemish environmental and socio-economic advisory councils considered the planned €285 million, five-year Blue Deal budget insufficient for the stated ambitions.

The broader issue is one of public safety and economic resilience, not only environmental policy. CERAC warns that heat, flooding and water stress affect healthcare, homes, agriculture, industry, insurance and public finances, while disruptions abroad reach Belgium through trade and supply chains.

Authorities now face the task of converting the national risk map into funded, coordinated measures. The next tests are whether governments assign responsibility across Belgium’s fragmented system, secure long-term adaptation budgets and establish measurable deadlines. The scale and timing of those decisions remain unsettled.