InternationalHealth
تحديث 26 يونيو 2026

NOAA تقول إن El Niño عاد مع تحذير المتنبئين من موجات حر وأمطار قصوى أشد

تحديث: 26 يونيو 2026، Brussels. قال Climate Prediction Center التابع لـ NOAA في 11 يونيو إن ظروف El Niño موجودة في المحيط الهادئ الاستوائي، ومن المتوقع أن تشتد خلال شتاء نصف الكرة الشمالي 2026-27.

Belgium Impulse Editorial·26 June 2026·2 min read·
Well established· 1 مصدر أساسي + 2 وثائق رسمية + 1 مصدر صحفي مستقل · مصادر أكاديمية: 1

In 30 seconds

  • أصدرت NOAA تنبيهاً بشأن El Niño في 11 يونيو 2026، وقالت إن الظروف يُتوقع أن تشتد خلال شتاء 2026-27.
  • توقعت NOAA احتمالاً بنسبة 63% لحدوث El Niño قوي جداً خلال نوفمبر-يناير.
  • قال IRI في 22 يونيو إن احتمالات El Niño تبلغ 100% من يونيو-أغسطس حتى سبتمبر-نوفمبر.
  • قال IRI إن 13 نموذجاً من أصل 24 تُظهر ذروة قوية جداً لـ El Niño خلال سبتمبر-نوفمبر.

El Niño هو الطور الدافئ من El Niño-Southern Oscillation، وهي دورة محيطية-جوية في المحيط الهادئ تتابعها

Organisation

NOAA

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

Why it matters

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

About

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a United States scientific and regulatory agency tasked with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, conducting deep-sea exploration, and managing fishing and protection of marine mammals and endangered species in the US exclusive economic zone. The agency is part of the United States Department of Commerce and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.

و
Organisation

IRI

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

Why it matters

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

About

Eritrea, officially the State of Eritrea, is a country in the Horn of Africa region of East Africa. Its capital and largest city is Asmara. The country is bordered by Ethiopia to the south, Sudan to the west, and Djibouti to the southeast. The northeastern and eastern parts of Eritrea have an extensive coastline along the Red Sea.

عبر درجات حرارة سطح البحر والرياح وأنماط الضغط. وقالت NOAA إن أحدث مؤشر أسبوعي Niño-3.4 بلغ +0.7 درجة مئوية في أوائل يونيو، بينما أفاد IRI بقيمة أسبوعية لاحقة بلغت +1.7 درجة مئوية متمركزة حول 17 يونيو، ما يُظهر اشتداداً سريعاً في وسط المحيط الهادئ.

Background

يشير IRI إلى أن أحداث El Niño وLa Niña غالباً ما تتطور من أبريل إلى يونيو، وتبلغ ذروتها بين أكتوبر وفبراير، وتستمر عادة من 9 إلى 12 شهراً، وتتكرر كل عامين إلى سبعة أعوام. وتقول NOAA إن السجل التاريخي المستخدم لتصنيف الأحداث الكبرى يعود إلى عام 1950.

Context & what happens next

Impact

Regional — بالنسبة إلى Belgium، يكون التأثير غير مباشر. ويظل Royal Meteorological Institute هو الجهة المخولة بإصدار تحذيرات الحر والعواصف الرعدية والأمطار في Belgium؛ أما El Niño فهو إشارة مناخية خلفية، وليس توقعاً محلياً للطقس في Brussels أو Wallonia أو Flanders.

Evidence
Well established · 1 مصدر أساسي + 2 وثائق رسمية + 1 مصدر صحفي مستقل · مصادر أكاديمية: 1
Explore evidence
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Published:
11 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
Published:
22 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
The Guardian, reporting WMO warning
Published:
2 Jun 2026, 02:00
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
official
Publication date unavailable
Retrieved by ODIN:
26 Jun 2026
Read original

Voices & reactions

What the main actors are doing

Reported positions, summarised — not direct quotations

متنبئو NOAA

يعرض Climate Prediction Center التابع لـ NOAA الحدث بوصفه ثابتاً وفي طور الاشتداد، مع احتمال محدد بنسبة 63% أن تصل فترة نوفمبر-يناير إلى مستويات El Niño قوية جداً ضمن السجل التاريخي الذي يبدأ في عام 1950.

مسؤولو التواصل بشأن المخاطر في WMO

تشدد الرسالة العامة الصادرة عن World Meteorological Organization، وفق ما أوردته The Guardian، على الاستعداد وعدم اليقين بشأن القوة، محذرة من التعامل مع كل El Niño قوي على أنه توقع موحد لكارثة عالمية.

The story, connected

Explore the people, places and ideas in this story

Go beyond the headline. Open a card for sourced context, maps, official links and the other subjects connected to this report.

Organisations

NOAA

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

In this story

said El Niño conditions are present and described expected climate impacts and historical records

Background

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is a United States scientific and regulatory agency tasked with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the seas, conducting deep-sea exploration, and managing fishing and protection of marine mammals and endangered species in the US exclusive economic zone. The agency is part of the United States Department of Commerce and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland.

Organisations

Climate Prediction Center

NOAA centre that said El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific

In this story

NOAA centre that said El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific

Background

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States federal agency that is one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, which are a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service. CPC is headquartered in College Park, Maryland.

Places

Northern Hemisphere

region referenced for the winter period when El Niño is expected to strengthen

In this story

region referenced for the winter period when El Niño is expected to strengthen

Background

The Northern Hemisphere is the half of Earth that is north of the equator. For other planets in the Solar System, north is defined as being in the same celestial hemisphere relative to the invariable plane the Solar System as Earth's North Pole.

Organisations

IRI

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

In this story

climate centre reporting Pacific readings and El Niño intensification

Background

Eritrea, officially the State of Eritrea, is a country in the Horn of Africa region of East Africa. Its capital and largest city is Asmara. The country is bordered by Ethiopia to the south, Sudan to the west, and Djibouti to the southeast. The northeastern and eastern parts of Eritrea have an extensive coastline along the Red Sea.

Places

Pacific

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

In this story

region where readings show El Niño intensifying

Background

The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It stretches from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean, or, depending on the definition, to Antarctica in the south, and is bounded by the continents of Asia and Australia in the west and the Americas in the east.

Organisations

Royal Meteorological Institute

authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings

In this story

authority for Belgian heat, thunderstorm and rainfall warnings

Background

The Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium is a Belgian federal institute engaged in scientific research in the field of meteorology. The RMI depends on the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO). The institute is a member of the World Meteorological Organization, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, of EUMETSAT, and of the EIG Eumetnet.

Places

Brussels

Belgian location mentioned in the update dateline and local forecast context

In this story

Belgian location mentioned in the update dateline and local forecast context

Background

The City of Brussels is the largest municipality and historical centre of the Brussels-Capital Region, as well as the capital of the French Community of Belgium, the Flemish Region, and Belgium. The City of Brussels is also the administrative centre of the European Union, as it hosts a number of principal EU institutions in its European Quarter.

Continue reading

Powered by ODIN™An Ordinis creation · © 2026 Ordinis

This story was assembled from verified evidence, with its sources and reasoning recorded as it was written.

methodology.